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| Market | Platform | Price |
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![]() | Poly | 84% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on January 18, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is no
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the total number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) on a specific future date, January 18, 2026. The TSA, a component of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, screens all commercial airline passengers at U.S. airports. Its daily throughput data serves as a critical real-time indicator of air travel demand, economic activity, and consumer confidence. The reported figure for January 18, 2026, will represent the aggregate number of individuals processed at TSA checkpoints nationwide on that Sunday, a date falling in the post-holiday travel period. This specific metric is closely monitored by airlines, airports, investors, and policymakers as a high-frequency barometer of the transportation sector's health. Interest in predicting this number stems from its implications for airline revenue, airport concession sales, hotel occupancy, and broader economic trends. The accuracy of such forecasts can influence trading in airline stocks, commodity prices like jet fuel, and assessments of consumer spending resilience. The resolution mechanism specifies that if the reported number falls exactly between two prediction brackets, the market resolves to the higher range, adding a layer of strategic consideration for participants.
The TSA was created by the Aviation and Transportation Security Act signed by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001, in response to the September 11 attacks. It assumed responsibility for passenger screening from private contractors in 2002. Historically, daily passenger numbers have followed strong seasonal patterns, with peaks around summer holidays and Thanksgiving, and troughs in early January and February. A significant historical precedent was the near-total collapse of air travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. On April 13, 2020, TSA screened just 87,534 passengers nationwide, compared to over 2.5 million on the same date in 2019. This event demonstrated the extreme sensitivity of the metric to external shocks. The recovery trajectory since 2021 has been a key focus, with volumes surpassing 2019 levels on key holiday periods in 2023 and 2024. The data for January 18 specifically has historical significance as it typically falls during a lower-demand period following the December and New Year's travel rush, providing a baseline reading of non-holiday demand at the start of the year.
The TSA passenger count is far more than just an operational statistic. It is a leading economic indicator. Each passenger represents direct spending on airfare, which is a significant component of the services sector in GDP calculations. Furthermore, air travel is a prerequisite for business deals, tourism expenditures, and family visits that drive broader economic activity. A sustained deviation from forecasted passenger levels can signal shifts in consumer confidence, business investment in travel, or the impact of external factors like new viral variants or geopolitical tensions. For markets, this data point influences the performance of airline, hotel, and rental car stocks. For policymakers, it helps assess the effectiveness of economic stimuli and the recovery of the travel and hospitality sectors, which are major employers. Accurate predictions matter to airport operators who staff concessions and to federal agencies that allocate security resources.
As of late 2024 and early 2025, TSA passenger volumes have consistently exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic levels on an annualized basis, signaling a full recovery in aggregate demand. However, the patterns of travel have shifted, with continued strength in leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel, while some segments of business travel remain below historical norms. Airlines have reported robust forward bookings for early 2026, though specific daily forecasts for January 2026 are not yet published. Economic forecasts for 2026 suggest moderate growth, which typically correlates with increased air travel demand. The TSA continues to deploy technologies like Credential Authentication Technology (CAT) and Computed Tomography (CT) scanners at checkpoints, which may marginally affect processing efficiency and capacity by the target date.
The TSA publishes daily passenger throughput data on its official website under a dedicated dashboard. The data is typically updated by midday Eastern Time for the previous calendar day and includes a running year-to-date comparison to prior years.
Key factors include airline capacity (number of seats offered), ticket pricing, broader economic conditions, consumer confidence, seasonal holidays, major events, health concerns, and business travel budgets. Severe weather causing mass cancellations can also drastically reduce the count on any given day.
Forecasts are reasonably accurate for normal seasonal patterns but can be highly volatile around holidays and susceptible to large errors from unforeseen events like pandemics or economic shocks. Analysts use historical data, airline schedule filings, and advanced booking trends to build models.
Yes, the TSA throughput number includes all passengers screened at TSA checkpoints for domestic and international flights departing from U.S. airports. It does not include passengers arriving from international destinations who clear customs but do not re-enter the sterile departure area.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.





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