Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Total Volume

$24.52K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Vol

$24.52K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $24.52K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.52K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?	Kalshi	94%
Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?	Kalshi	84%
Will James Talarico win Collin County?	Kalshi	67%
Will James Talarico win Denton County?	Kalshi	49%
Will James Talarico win Bell County?	Kalshi	26%
Will James Talarico win Brazoria County?	Kalshi	22%
Will James Talarico win Bastrop County?	Kalshi	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$24.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Tarrant County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: Thi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will James Talarico win Denton County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will James Talarico win Collin County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will James Talarico win Brazoria County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will James Talarico win Bell County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will James Talarico win Bastrop County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Volume$24.52K

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHISports

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Tarrant County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: Thi

KALSHI

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHISports

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Fort Bend County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: T

KALSHI

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHISports

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Collin County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHISports

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Denton County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHISports

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

If James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate general election in Bell County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This m

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

51¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/cYctao" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Markets (7)

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County?

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

Will James Talarico win Fort Bend County?

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

Will James Talarico win Collin County?

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

Will James Talarico win Denton County?

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

Will James Talarico win Bell County?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget