$76.91K
1
10
$76.91K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X attends the pro football championship in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The national broadcast of the game on NBC will be monitored for this purpose as well. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 62% probability that former Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce will attend the 2026 Big Game, the NFL's championship event. This price, trading exclusively on Kalshi, suggests the market views his attendance as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining. With approximately $71,000 in total volume spread across related markets, liquidity is currently thin, indicating this is a speculative, niche interest contract rather than a heavily traded consensus view.
The primary factor supporting a "Yes" outcome is Jason Kelce's iconic status and deep connection to the NFL ecosystem. Following his storied career and highly publicized retirement, Kelce has transitioned seamlessly into media with his successful podcast and a role on ESPN's "Monday Night Countdown." His continued high profile and insider access make him a natural invitee for major NFL events. Furthermore, his brother, Travis Kelce, is likely to still be an active star for the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2026 season, providing a compelling personal narrative for Jason to attend if his brother is playing or even if he is simply supporting the league.
Conversely, the probability is not higher due to the inherent unpredictability of a personal decision two years in advance. Kelce's new media commitments and family priorities could conflict with attendance. The market also likely prices in the small chance that the event's location or other logistics prove inconvenient, or that he chooses to attend in a non-broadcast-visible capacity.
The most direct catalyst will be any public statement from Kelce or his representatives regarding his plans for the 2026 event. Odds would surge toward "Yes" if he hints at attending, especially if his brother's team is on a championship trajectory. Conversely, a firm declaration that he will not attend would collapse the market. As the 2025 NFL season concludes and the 2026 Big Game matchup and location (which is already set for Los Angeles) become focal points, the market will react to any news linking Kelce to the event. The odds will also be sensitive to the broader media narrative in the lead-up to the game, as networks often feature prominent former players like Kelce in their coverage.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential attendance of a high-profile individual, referred to as 'X', at the professional football championship game scheduled for 2026. The event, commonly known as the Big Game or Super Bowl, is the annual championship game of the National Football League (NFL) and represents one of the most significant cultural and sporting events in the United States. The market specifically resolves based on whether X is confirmed to be in attendance at the stadium during the game, with monitoring focused on the national television broadcast on NBC. The market's resolution hinges on visual confirmation during the live broadcast or subsequent official reports, and it is designed to close early if the attendance event occurs before the scheduled expiration. Interest in this topic stems from the intersection of celebrity culture, major event attendance as a status symbol, and the predictive analysis of public appearances by influential figures. The identity of 'X' is central to the market's intrigue, as it is typically a figure whose presence would generate significant media attention and public discussion, such as a former president, a global pop star, or a tech billionaire. The 2026 game is notable as it will be the first Super Bowl broadcast by NBC under the NFL's new media rights deals, which began in 2023, adding another layer of significance to the event's coverage.
The Super Bowl has long been a magnet for celebrities, politicians, and business leaders, making attendance a public statement and a subject of speculation. A significant historical precedent was set in 2002, when the NFL postponed Super Bowl XXXVI by one week following the September 11 attacks, yet still attracted a star-studded crowd, demonstrating the event's resilient draw. In more recent years, specific attendee predictions have gained cultural traction. For instance, prior to Super Bowl LIV in 2020, there was widespread media speculation about whether former President Donald Trump would attend the game in Miami. He did not, but the speculation itself drove significant news coverage. The 2022 Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles saw intense speculation and confirmed attendance from a vast array of A-list celebrities, from actors to musicians and tech CEOs, setting a modern benchmark for high-profile attendance. The mechanism of using a national broadcast to verify attendance has a direct precedent in prediction markets and betting forums, where visual confirmation during the CBS broadcast of Super Bowl LVII was used to settle bets on whether a specific celebrity was in the stadium. This established the broadcast as an accepted, publicly observable source of truth for such markets.
The question of a specific individual's attendance at the Super Bowl transcends mere celebrity gossip. It serves as a barometer for that individual's cultural relevance, political capital, or business interests at a given moment. A decision to attend, or to be seen attending, is a calculated public relations move, signaling alignment with the NFL's brand, an appeal to a mass American audience, or a strategic networking opportunity. For the host city and the NFL, the presence of certain high-profile figures can generate additional global media attention, potentially boosting viewership metrics and the perceived prestige of the event. Conversely, a notable absence, especially if anticipated, can fuel narratives about declining influence or intentional distancing from the public spectacle. The outcome of this prediction market can also have minor financial implications for related industries, including hospitality, private aviation, and security services in the host city, which see demand fluctuations based on the anticipated scale of VIP attendance.
As of late 2025, the NFL has not yet officially announced the host city for Super Bowl LX in 2026, though a decision is expected imminently following the league's annual spring meetings. The broadcasting plans for NBC are in the early stages of development. The identity of 'X' in this market remains the central unknown variable driving speculation. No credible leaks or official confirmations regarding the attendance plans of any singular, market-moving figure have surfaced. Prediction market activity on this topic is currently low-volume, awaiting clearer signals, such as the announcement of the host city (which influences travel logistics) or rumors from entertainment or political insiders regarding the plans of potential candidates for 'X'.
The market resolves based on monitoring the national NBC broadcast. If the broadcast shows the individual, either via a cutaway shot, an interview, or footage from within a suite with open visibility, that constitutes verification. Purely private attendance with no broadcast evidence would not result in a 'Yes' resolution.
Prediction markets typically have contractual rules for such contingencies. If the event itself is canceled, the market would likely resolve as 'No' or be voided, as the condition for attendance cannot be met. A postponement to a date within the market's active period would require specific rules outlined by the market operator.
No. The market terms specify attendance at the pro football championship game itself. Being in the host city for related concerts, parties, or other events but not being present in the stadium during the game broadcast would not fulfill the condition for a 'Yes' resolution.
Sideline access is typically reserved for current and former NFL players, team owners, major sponsors, and a select group of celebrities with direct ties to the league or its partners. Suite access is dominated by corporate sponsors, team owners, and high-net-worth individuals who purchase or are gifted access.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will attend the Big Game? (Jason Kelce) | Kalshi | 62% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Lionel Messi) | Kalshi | 54% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Donald Trump) | Kalshi | 49% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (JD Vance) | Kalshi | 33% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Elon Musk) | Kalshi | 24% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Taylor Swift) | Kalshi | 18% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Kristi Noem) | Kalshi | 14% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Tom Homan) | Kalshi | 9% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Barack Obama) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will attend the Big Game? (Jill Biden) | Kalshi | 5% |
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