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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alabama | Kalshi | 93% |
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alabama | Kalshi | 5% |
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In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Alabama pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets currently price an 89% probability that the Democratic Party will win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. This price, translating to a roughly 9-in-10 chance, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the overwhelming favorite. The high confidence is reflected in the significant trading volume, which totals $219,000 across platforms. With the election nearly 300 days away, this pricing represents a strong consensus on the expected outcome.
Three structural factors underpin the Democratic party's dominant market position. First, New York's deep-blue partisan lean is decisive. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Second, the power of incumbency favors Democrats. Governor Kathy Hochul, who won a full term in 2022, is the presumptive Democratic nominee and would benefit from the state party's formidable fundraising and organizational apparatus. Third, recent Republican performances have been weak. The GOP's 2022 gubernatorial nominee lost by roughly 6 points, and the party has struggled to craft a statewide message that resonates beyond its conservative base.
The current 89% probability could shift with major unforeseen developments. A significant economic downturn or a crisis of governance under the Hochul administration could erode Democratic support and improve Republican prospects. A contentious and divisive Democratic primary, though currently unlikely, could also weaken the eventual nominee. Conversely, the odds could move even higher if a top-tier Republican candidate declines to run or if early polling shows an insurmountable Democratic lead. Key dates to watch will be the party primaries in mid-2026, which will finalize the candidates and set the stage for the general election campaign.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices closely aligned around the 89% level for a Democratic win. The absence of a meaningful arbitrage spread indicates efficient information sharing between platforms and a solidified consensus among traders. The high liquidity across both exchanges lends credibility to the current price as a robust snapshot of collective expectation, rather than an artifact of a thin market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's chief executive from December 2026 through December 2030. This election occurs every four years, with Alaska's unique political landscape featuring a nonpartisan primary system and ranked-choice voting in the general election. The current governor, Republican Mike Dunleavy, will be term-limited after serving two consecutive terms, creating an open seat contest for the first time since 2018. The election will test Alaska's relatively new voting system, which was approved by voters in 2020 and first implemented in the 2022 elections. This system eliminates party primaries in favor of a single primary where all candidates appear on one ballot, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election, where ranked-choice voting determines the winner. Political observers are watching closely to see how this system shapes candidate strategies and whether it continues to produce moderate winners, as it did in 2022 when Democrat Mary Peltola won Alaska's lone U.S. House seat despite the state's Republican lean. The election comes at a critical time for Alaska, with debates ongoing about the state's fiscal future, resource development, and demographic changes. Interest in this prediction market reflects both political curiosity about Alaska's evolving electoral system and substantive interest in who will lead a state with significant energy resources and unique governance challenges.
Alaska's gubernatorial elections have undergone significant transformation in recent decades. From statehood in 1959 through 2018, Alaska elected governors through traditional partisan primaries and plurality-winner general elections. This system produced mostly Republican governors, with only two Democrats serving since statehood, Bill Sheffield (1982-1986) and Tony Knowles (1994-2002). The 2014 election marked a turning point when independent candidate Bill Walker formed a unity ticket with Democrat Byron Mallott, defeating incumbent Republican Sean Parnell. This demonstrated that non-major party candidates could win in Alaska's three-way political landscape. In 2018, Republican Mike Dunleavy won with 51.4% of the vote in a three-way race against Democrat Mark Begich and independent incumbent Bill Walker, who dropped out shortly before the election but remained on the ballot. The most significant change came in 2020 when Alaska voters approved Ballot Measure 2, which implemented a nonpartisan primary system and ranked-choice voting for general elections. This system was first tested in the 2022 special and regular elections for U.S. House, where Democrat Mary Peltola won despite Alaska's Republican lean, demonstrating how ranked-choice voting could produce different outcomes than traditional plurality elections. The 2022 gubernatorial election occurred under the old system, with Dunleavy winning re-election with 50.3% of the vote against Democrat Les Gara and independent Bill Walker. The 2026 election will be the first gubernatorial contest conducted entirely under the new voting system.
The outcome of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election will determine the state's approach to critical economic and environmental issues for the next four years. Alaska faces persistent fiscal challenges due to its reliance on oil revenues, with debates continuing about the size of Permanent Fund dividend payments to residents, which amounted to $1,312 per person in 2023. The governor will influence decisions about resource development in federal areas like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, as well as state lands. These decisions affect Alaska's economy, which still derives about 25% of its jobs from oil and gas, and have implications for national energy policy and climate goals. Politically, the election will test whether Alaska's new voting system produces more moderate governance or creates unexpected outcomes in a state that has voted Republican in presidential elections since 1968. The election also matters for Alaska Native communities, who comprise about 15% of the population and have gained political influence in recent years. The governor will appoint members to key boards and commissions, including those overseeing fisheries, oil and gas development, and the Permanent Fund, with decisions affecting billions of dollars in state assets.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race remains in its early stages with no declared candidates. Potential candidates are likely assessing their prospects under the new ranked-choice voting system and waiting to see how the 2024 elections affect Alaska's political landscape. The Alaska Division of Elections is preparing for the state's second election cycle under the new voting system, with the 2024 elections serving as an important test before the 2026 gubernatorial contest. Political observers are watching whether any candidates begin forming exploratory committees or making early visits to key regions of the state. The Republican party faces the challenge of selecting a successor to popular incumbent Mike Dunleavy, while Democrats and independents are evaluating whether the new voting system improves their chances in a historically Republican-leaning state. Fundraising networks are beginning to activate, though formal campaign organizations have not yet been established.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The nonpartisan primary election will occur in August 2026, with the exact date determined by the Alaska Division of Elections. The winner will be sworn in on the first Monday in December 2026.
In Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and those votes are redistributed to voters' next choices. This process continues until one candidate has a majority.
Candidates must be at least 30 years old, a qualified voter in Alaska, and a resident of the state for at least seven years immediately preceding filing for office. They cannot have been convicted of a felony involving moral turpitude or of a corruption-related crime.
The Alaska governor's annual salary is $145,000 as of 2024. The governor also receives a residence in the Alaska Governor's Mansion in Juneau and an annual allowance for official expenses.
Alaska governors are limited to two consecutive terms. After sitting out one term, they can run again. This means current Governor Mike Dunleavy cannot run in 2026 after serving from 2018 through 2026.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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