$157.85K
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$157.85K
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During the 2025-2029 term If X Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to the next president confirming exactly two Supreme Court justices during the 2025-2029 term. The leading contract on Kalshi trades at approximately 31 cents, implying the market sees only about a 31% chance of this outcome. This pricing suggests the scenario is viewed as possible but not the most likely expectation. For context, markets for confirming zero, one, or three justices collectively hold higher implied probabilities, indicating a dispersed outlook with no single outcome seen as highly probable.
Two primary factors are suppressing the odds for exactly two confirmations. First, historical vacancy rates make two openings in a single presidential term statistically uncommon. Since 1970, only one president (Donald Trump) confirmed two justices in a single term, a circumstance driven by unusual timing and political alignment. Second, the advanced age of the current bench introduces uncertainty. While several justices are in their 70s, predicting the exact timing of retirements or vacancies is highly speculative. The market is essentially pricing the coincidence of two voluntary retirements or deaths within a specific four-year window as a lower-probability event compared to a range of other possibilities.
The odds for this outcome are highly sensitive to unpredictable events and the 2024 election result. A sudden Supreme Court vacancy before January 2025 would immediately reshape the entire confirmation landscape for the next term, potentially increasing the probability of reaching two confirmations if a second vacancy later occurs. Furthermore, the political outcome of the presidential election is a major catalyst. A decisive victory coupled with unified party control of the Senate could increase the likelihood of strategic retirements from ideologically aligned justices, creating a path to multiple confirmations. The market will react sharply to any justice announcing retirement plans, with the timing of such news being the most direct driver of price movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the number of Supreme Court justices a U.S. President may successfully nominate and have confirmed by the Senate during the four-year presidential term spanning 2025 to 2029. The confirmation of Supreme Court justices is a pivotal presidential power with long-lasting consequences, as justices serve lifetime appointments and shape American law for decades. The topic's relevance hinges on the age and health of the current sitting justices, the political composition of the Senate, and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Recent history has seen intense political battles over confirmations, making the potential for vacancies during the next presidential term a subject of significant speculation and strategic planning for both major political parties. Interest in this market stems from its direct connection to the ideological balance of the nation's highest court, which rules on fundamental issues ranging from abortion and gun rights to regulatory power and election law. The number of confirmations could range from zero, if no justices retire or pass away, to a theoretical maximum of several, depending on contingent events.
The modern era of contentious Supreme Court confirmations began with the rejection of Robert Bork's nomination in 1987. However, the precedent most relevant to the 2025-2029 term was set in 2016, following the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to hold hearings or a vote on President Barack Obama's nominee, Judge Merrick Garland, arguing the vacancy should be filled by the next president. This established a new political norm where a Senate controlled by the opposition party could effectively block a nomination for an extended period. Conversely, in 2020, following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, McConnell and the Republican Senate moved swiftly to confirm President Trump's nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, just weeks before the presidential election. This sequence of events highlighted how the timing of a vacancy relative to an election cycle and the partisan control of the Senate are decisive factors. The average number of Supreme Court confirmations per presidential term has declined in recent decades, reflecting the Court's increased politicization. From 1945 to 2024, presidents have averaged about 1.5 confirmations per term, but this includes periods of multiple vacancies. The last single-term president to confirm three justices was Richard Nixon.
The number of justices confirmed in the 2025-2029 term will have profound and lasting implications for American society. Each confirmation represents a lifetime appointment, meaning a justice seated during this period could influence American jurisprudence well into the 2050s or beyond. The Court's decisions directly affect individual rights, the scope of federal and state power, business regulations, environmental policy, and the administration of elections. A shift in the Court's composition could lead to the overturning of recent precedents or the establishment of new ones in these critical areas. Beyond legal doctrine, the confirmation process itself has become a major political flashpoint, deeply influencing electoral politics, fundraising, and voter mobilization. The stakes of each vacancy intensify political polarization and can dominate a president's agenda and legacy. For the legal community, businesses, advocacy groups, and citizens, the ideological direction of the Court creates certainty or uncertainty for long-term planning and the protection of rights.
As of late 2024, the political landscape for the 2025-2029 term is being set by the November 2024 elections. The presidency and control of the U.S. Senate, which will be determined in that election, are the two most critical variables. No Supreme Court justice has announced an intention to retire effective in 2025. However, public speculation and strategic calculations by political actors are actively based on the ages and health of the sitting justices. The Senate's rules regarding the filibuster for judicial nominees, which was eliminated for Supreme Court nominees in 2017, remain in place, meaning confirmations require only a simple majority vote.
A president can appoint as many justices as there are vacancies during their term. There is no constitutional limit. The number depends on retirements, deaths, or resignations from the nine-member Court while that president is in office.
The President nominates a candidate. The Senate Judiciary Committee then holds hearings and votes on whether to recommend the nominee to the full Senate. Finally, the full Senate holds a debate and a confirmation vote, which currently requires a simple majority (51 votes) to succeed.
Based on age and speculation, the oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (76) and Samuel Alito (74), are often mentioned. Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who has health considerations, is also a focus, particularly regarding the strategic timing of a retirement under a politically favorable administration.
Yes. The Senate can reject a nominee by voting against confirmation. Furthermore, the Senate Majority Leader can simply refuse to schedule a hearing or a vote, which effectively blocks the nomination, as happened with Merrick Garland in 2016.
Yes, but not in the modern era. Several presidents in the 19th and early 20th centuries appointed four or more justices, including George Washington (10), Franklin D. Roosevelt (9 in his 12-year tenure), and William Howard Taft (6). In recent decades, no president has appointed four in a single term.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 28% |
Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 23% |
Will the next President confirm 3 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 15% |
Will the next President confirm 4 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will the next President confirm 9 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the next President confirm 8 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the next President confirm 7 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the next President confirm 6 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the next President confirm 5 Supreme Court justices? | Kalshi | 1% |
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