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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Name: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
End: 2026-06-30T23:55:00.000Z

Total Volume

$42.88M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Vol

$42.88M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $42.88M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $42.88M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Poly	95%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Poly	92%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$42.88M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. 

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying stat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.02M
* **Total Liquidity:** $237.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 25.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 94.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.84M
  DATA: [Yes: 91.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics