This event has ended. Showing historical data.

$4.67K
1
5

$4.67K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Saudi Pro League game, scheduled for February 7 at 12:30 PM ET.
Traders on prediction markets currently see the upcoming Saudi Professional League match as essentially a coin flip. They give Al Qadisiyah a 56% chance to win, which is roughly a 5 in 9 probability. This indicates a slight edge for the home team, but with very low confidence. It’s the kind of forecast you’d expect for a match between two closely matched sides, where the outcome feels genuinely uncertain.
The near-even odds reflect the current standings and recent history between these clubs. As of late 2025, both teams are likely positioned in the middle of the league table, making this a key match for moving up. Al Qadisiyah, having been promoted more recently, often plays with high energy at home. Al Ettifaq, a more established club with a famous former player like Steven Gerrard having previously managed there, typically has a reputation to uphold. The market’s slight lean toward Al Qadisiyah probably accounts for their home-field advantage, as Saudi league crowds can be a significant factor, and perhaps a slightly better recent run of form leading into this specific fixture.
The key event is the match itself, scheduled for Friday, December 19, 2025. The only developments that could shift the odds now are last-minute announcements about player injuries or lineup changes released by the clubs in the 24 hours before kickoff. Since this is a league match, there are no other pending deadlines. The final whistle will resolve the market.
For major soccer leagues, prediction markets are often quite accurate, frequently matching or beating the odds set by professional bookmakers. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans who watch team form, tactics, and news. However, their reliability has limits. A single unpredictable event, like a red card or a goalkeeping error, can easily swing a close game. For a match priced as a coin flip, the market is effectively saying the result is highly unpredictable, so while the collective intelligence is good, the actual outcome here is a genuine toss-up.
Prediction markets assign a 56% probability to Al Qadisiyah defeating Al Ettifaq. This price indicates a slight favorite status for the home side, but the market views the match as essentially a coin flip. With $108,000 in total volume, liquidity is sufficient to suggest this price reflects informed trader consensus rather than speculative noise. The narrow margin implies expectations of a close, competitive fixture typical of mid-table Saudi Pro League clashes.
Two primary elements support Al Qadisiyah's marginal favoritism. First is home advantage. Al Qadisiyah plays at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, where team performance often sees a measurable uptick. Second, recent form creates a psychological edge. Al Ettifaq's inconsistent results, including defensive vulnerabilities observed in their last three matches, make them a less reliable bet against a disciplined opponent. Historical head-to-head data shows no dominant pattern, which reinforces the market's view of a tight contest rather than a one-sided affair.
The most significant variable is team news announced at the pre-match press conference. A key injury to Al Qadisiyah's central midfield or the confirmed return of a top scorer for Al Ettifaq would immediately shift the line. Tactical setups also matter. If Al Ettifaq employs a defensive, counter-attacking formation they have used successfully on the road, the current odds favoring a home win could prove incorrect. Weather conditions at kickoff, while often stable, could affect playing style if extreme heat or wind is forecast.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable contract on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and concentrates all liquidity and price discovery in one venue. The 56% price is the singular market-derived forecast for this match outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 56% |
![]() | Poly | 27% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |





No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/d93qqf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club - More Markets"></iframe>