Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Name: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$353.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Vol

$353.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $353.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $353.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	Poly	16%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	Poly	5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?	Poly	5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?	Poly	3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?	Poly	3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?	Poly	3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$353.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will reso

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will reso

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $321.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $98.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $43.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $40.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $38.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $65.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $57.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Volume$353.67K

Markets15

15 of 15

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

POLYMARKETEconomy

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or on

POLYMARKET

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

POLYMARKETEconomy

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.4¢No 94.6¢

POLYMARKETEconomy

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

POLYMARKETEconomy

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.4¢No 96.7¢

POLYMARKETEconomy

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/dBtZJG" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?