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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

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Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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9 markets tracked

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)	Kalshi	95%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)	Kalshi	83%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)	Kalshi	16%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Christine Pelosi)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Matt Haney)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (London Breed)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Nancy Pelosi)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

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About This Event

In 2026 If X advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marie Hurabiell advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Matt Haney)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (London Breed)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Nancy Pelosi)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Christine Pelosi)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

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Markets9

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KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

If Scott Wiener advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

If Saikat Chakrabarti advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

If Connie Chan advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.3¢No 96.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

If Marie Hurabiell advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

If David Ganezer advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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23¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/dD-WmP" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?"></iframe>

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Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

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Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

Markets (9)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Scott Wiener)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Saikat Chakrabarti)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Connie Chan)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (Marie Hurabiell)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

Who will win the 2026 CA-11 primary? (David Ganezer)

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