Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

Vol

$5.62K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	35%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$5.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on September 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If FedEx releases

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 28, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on September 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If FedEx releases 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on September 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.05 for the relevant qua"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $340
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 16.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance