Name: Japan General Election 3rd Place?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

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Japan General Election 3rd Place? | PredictPedia

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10 markets tracked

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	99%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%
Will the Social Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Poly	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Japan General Election 3rd Place?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by Novemb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $168.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $100.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $17.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $29.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $53.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Social Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

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Events (1)

Japan General Election 3rd Place?

Markets (10)

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

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Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Japan General Election 3rd Place?

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

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