Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Total Volume

$126.09

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Vol

$126.09

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $126.09

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $126.09

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?	Kalshi	56%
Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?	Kalshi	53%
Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?	Kalshi	51%
Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?	Kalshi	50%
Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$126.09

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 2026 If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in total nonfarm payroll employment for the two months immediately preceding October 2026, relative to their estimates in the immediately preceding Employment Situation release. The two revisions will be added tog

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 2026

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in total nonfarm payroll employment for the two months immediately preceding October 2026, relative to their estimates in the immediately preceding Employment Situation release. The two revisions will be added tog

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -50,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $126
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $63
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Volume$126.09

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in tota

KALSHI

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in

KALSHI

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -50,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in

KALSHI

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 50,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in t

KALSHI

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/dNvDaD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026"></iframe>

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US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

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Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Markets (5)

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

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Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 0?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 50,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above 100,000?

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