GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Name: Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
End: 2026-10-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.56M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Vol

$5.56M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.56M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.56M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Poly	91%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$5.56M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 1, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.56M
* **Total Liquidity:** $956.7K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.82)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $1.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 91.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $393.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $95.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $98.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $673.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $541.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $294.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $93.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $197.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $92.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $85.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $151.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $111.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $188.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $325.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $203.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $120.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $98.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $624.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics