Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks whether Kansas State's regular season win total will exceed a listed number. Each contract resolves "Yes" if the team's regular season wins exceed that number, and "No" otherwise [1]. Only official regular season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count [1]. Canceled or unplayed games are not counted as wins, and if the 2026 regular season is canceled, or postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves "No" [1]. The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

The saved event lists four contracts, with thresholds of more than 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 wins [1]. Each has a listed end time of 2026-12-27T04:59:00Z, and the provider status is active [1]. That end time is a contract closing time, not a date when the season is known to finish or when any result is known.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T06:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-17T07:03:43Z [1]. They describe that moment only. The reported Yes prices were 0.645 for more than 6.5 wins, 0.405 for more than 7.5, 0.14 for more than 8.5, and 0.053 for more than 9.5 [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the prices should be compared within the same threshold and not combined into a single estimate of the team's record.

These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved data does not report trading volume in a way that shows liquidity, and it does not report how many traders are involved.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all four saved markets for this event, and the record shows no partial sampling [1]. However, the sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence covers only one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible from this record.

The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it contains no information on current team news, schedules, injuries, or recent results. Differences between these contracts reflect their different thresholds in the saved rules, and they do not, on their own, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: NCAA Football: Kansas State 2026 Win Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.