Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Total Volume

$30.65K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Vol

$30.65K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $30.65K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.65K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	50%
Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	26%
Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	12%
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	7%
Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	6%
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	4%
Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will The Whisper Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will The Social Reckoning win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will Saturn Return win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will Ink win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will Cry to Heaven win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will Clarissa win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%
Will All of a Sudden win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$30.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2027 If X has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Wildwood has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will The Whisper Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will The Social Reckoning win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Saturn Return win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ink win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Cry to Heaven win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Clarissa win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will All of a Sudden win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Volume$30.65K

Markets15

15 of 15

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KALSHI

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

If The Black Ball has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associ

KALSHI

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢

KALSHISports

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

If The Invite has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated

KALSHI

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHISports

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

If The Odyssey has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associate

KALSHI

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

If Project Hail Mary has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any ass

KALSHI

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

If Wildwood has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated m

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8¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/dZ8SAx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay"></iframe>

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Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

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Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Markets (15)

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

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Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Oscar Winner: Best Adapted Screenplay

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

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