$171.57K
2
40
$171.57K
2
40
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-2026 If X wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
Prediction markets currently give Arsenal about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the FA Cup this season. This means traders collectively see them as a serious contender, but not the most likely winner. With roughly $171,000 wagered so far, there's moderate interest in this outcome. The final answer will be known when the tournament concludes in about three months.
Arsenal's current odds reflect their position as a top English club with a strong squad. Their manager, Mikel Arteta, has built a team capable of challenging for major trophies. However, the FA Cup is a single-elimination tournament known for surprises, where any team can have a good day. Arsenal's recent focus has been intensely on winning the Premier League, which might affect how they prioritize cup competitions. Historically, the FA Cup has often been won by the dominant team of the era, but not always. The "magic of the cup" refers to its long tradition of unexpected results, which tempers confidence in any single favorite.
The third-round draw in early December is the first major event, as it sets the initial path. Arsenal will enter the competition in the third round in early January. Their performance in the Premier League and European competitions around that time will signal how much energy they will commit to the FA Cup. Watch for team selection in their first FA Cup match. If Arteta fields a full-strength squad, it signals serious intent. Each subsequent draw and match, especially against another top club, will cause the prediction odds to shift significantly.
For major football trophies, prediction markets have a mixed but generally useful record. They efficiently aggregate opinions from thousands of fans and analysts, often outperforming individual pundits. However, the knockout nature of the FA Cup introduces more randomness than league competitions. A single refereeing decision or moment of individual brilliance can change everything. These markets are best seen as a snapshot of informed collective opinion, not a sure bet. The 25% probability for Arsenal is a real-time estimate that will update with every match they play.
Prediction markets currently price Arsenal's chance of winning the 2025-2026 FA Cup at 25%. This probability, derived from a "Yes" share price of 25¢ on the leading market, indicates the Gunners are seen as a credible contender but not the favorite. The market assigns a roughly 1-in-4 shot, a position typically reserved for a strong top-four Premier League side. With $171,000 in total volume, there is moderate liquidity, suggesting informed trading rather than pure speculation. The event resolves on May 16, 2026.
Arsenal's 25% valuation reflects their status as a perennial domestic cup threat under Mikel Arteta, coupled with the inherent unpredictability of the tournament. The FA Cup's single-elimination format historically produces upsets, compressing the odds between elite teams and mid-table contenders. Arsenal's deep squad is built for competing on multiple fronts, but their recent focus has arguably shifted toward Premier League and Champions League success. This may lead to rotated lineups in early cup rounds, increasing variance. The current price also implies the market expects at least three or four other clubs, like Manchester City and Liverpool, to have equal or better odds.
The primary catalyst will be the FA Cup draw, especially from the quarter-final stage onward. A favorable path avoiding other "Big Six" clubs until the final would likely see Arsenal's probability spike. Conversely, an early draw against Manchester City could crash their odds. Team performance in March and April 2026 will be critical. If Arsenal are out of the Premier League title race and Champions League by spring, the FA Cup could become their clear priority, leading to stronger starting XIs and a probability increase. A significant injury to a key player like Bukayo Saka or Declan Rice before a crucial match would have the opposite effect.
This is a cross-platform event on Polymarket and Kalshi, with a notable 2.4% price spread. Polymarket consistently prices Arsenal's chances slightly higher. This divergence likely stems from differing user bases. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may weigh Arsenal's brand strength and attacking talent more heavily. Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract traders who place greater emphasis on the tournament's randomness and the strength of competitors like Manchester City. The spread is wide enough to suggest minor arbitrage opportunity but not so large that it indicates a fundamental pricing disagreement. Both platforms agree Arsenal is a second-tier favorite.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The FA Cup Winner prediction market for the 2025-2026 season is a speculative contract that resolves based on which football club wins the Football Association Challenge Cup, commonly known as the FA Cup. This competition is England's primary domestic knockout cup tournament, organized by The Football Association and open to all eligible clubs down to Level 10 of the English football league system. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if a specified club, denoted as 'X' in the contract, lifts the trophy at Wembley Stadium at the conclusion of the tournament. The market will close early once a champion is officially declared after the final match. Interest in this market stems from the FA Cup's unique prestige, its unpredictable nature where lower-league teams can defeat top-flight giants, and the substantial financial and sporting rewards for the winner, including qualification for the UEFA Europa League. Bettors and speculators analyze team form, managerial changes, squad depth, and historical performance in cup competitions to assess probabilities. The 2025-2026 edition will be the 145th season of the competition, continuing a tradition that began in the 1871-72 season. Recent trends have seen a mix of traditional 'Big Six' clubs and occasional surprise winners, making the outcome less certain than league championships and thus attractive for prediction markets.
The FA Cup is the oldest national football competition in the world, first contested in the 1871-72 season. Wanderers F.C. won the inaugural final, defeating Royal Engineers 1-0 at Kennington Oval. The tournament's history is defined by its 'magic,' where smaller, non-league clubs have achieved famous victories over top-division opponents. A notable early giant-killing was in 1888 when Preston North End, a professional team, lost to Hyde United, an amateur side. In the modern era, Wimbledon's 1988 victory over Liverpool and Wigan Athletic's 2013 win against Manchester City are celebrated upsets. The competition final moved to the new Wembley Stadium in 2007 after a seven-year stint at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium during Wembley's reconstruction. Arsenal is the most successful club with 14 titles, followed by Manchester United with 12. The 2020 final, delayed to August due to the COVID-19 pandemic, was played behind closed doors, highlighting the competition's resilience. The FA Cup winner traditionally qualifies for the UEFA Europa League group stage, though from the 2024-25 season, this place may shift to the UEFA Conference League depending on other qualifications, adding a strategic layer for top clubs already in European competitions.
Winning the FA Cup carries significant financial and sporting consequences. The champion receives a substantial share of the competition's broadcasting and commercial revenue, estimated to be worth several million pounds. For clubs outside the Premier League's financial elite, this prize money can be transformative for their annual budgets and squad development. The trophy also guarantees entry into European competition, providing additional revenue from UEFA and raising the club's international profile, which aids in commercial sponsorship and player recruitment. Beyond economics, the FA Cup retains immense cultural and social weight in English football. It is a focal point for community pride, especially for lower-league and non-league clubs whose runs in the tournament capture national attention. For managers, winning the FA Cup can secure their job or define their legacy. For fans, it often represents a cherished memory, sometimes the only major trophy they see their club win in a lifetime. The competition's knockout format ensures drama and unpredictability, making it a central narrative in each football season.
The 2024-2025 FA Cup season is underway, serving as the immediate precursor to the 2025-2026 season covered by this prediction market. The format remains unchanged, with the final scheduled for May 2025 at Wembley Stadium. Recent developments include ongoing discussions about the future scheduling of FA Cup replays, which were abolished from the fifth round onward in a 2022 agreement but remain a point of contention for lower-league clubs. The Premier League's winter break and expanded European competitions continue to create fixture congestion, influencing how top clubs approach the tournament. For the 2025-2026 season, all clubs will be assessing their squads following the summer 2025 transfer window, which will be a critical factor in shaping the betting odds and market sentiment for potential winners.
The FA Cup final is traditionally played on a Saturday in May, serving as the last domestic fixture of the English football season. The exact date is set by The Football Association, typically announced before the season begins.
The winner qualifies for the following season's UEFA Europa League group stage. However, if the winner has already qualified for the UEFA Champions League via their league position, the Europa League spot is typically reassigned.
The total number of entrants varies but is typically over 700 clubs, ranging from the Premier League down to clubs in the lower tiers of the English football pyramid. All must progress through several qualifying rounds before reaching the First Round Proper.
No. The furthest a non-league team has progressed is the final, which last happened in 1927 when Cardiff City won while in the Third Division South, which was then part of the Football League structure, not the non-league pyramid.
For each round except the semi-finals and final, the home team is decided by a random draw. The semi-finals and final are played at the neutral venue of Wembley Stadium in London.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
28 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 25% | 1% |
| 19% | 19% | 0% |
| 16% | 16% | 1% |
| 17% | 13% | 4% |
| 5% | 7% | 1% |
| 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 3% | 6% | 2% |
| 5% | 4% | 1% |
| 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 3% | 3% | 1% |
Different
Similar
2025-2026 If X wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will b
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 202
If Arsenal wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 202
If Manchester City wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 202
If Liverpool wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 202
If Chelsea wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 202
If Newcastle wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
No related news found
Polymarket
$50.71K
Kalshi
$120.86K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/d_5T91" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="FA Cup Winner"></iframe>