Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

Total Volume

$104.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

Vol

$104.62K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $104.62K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $104.62K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?	Kalshi	98%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?	Kalshi	93%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?	Kalshi	77%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?	Kalshi	46%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?	Kalshi	16%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $325,000?	Kalshi	6%
Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $350,000?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$104.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry, NAICS 523, employees working in New York City for 2026. The OSC estimate includes cash bonuses and deferred compensation for which taxes have been withheld, and excludes stock options and other deferred compensation for which taxes have not yet been withhe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry, NAICS 523, employees working in New York City for 2026. The OSC estimate includes cash bonuses and deferred compensation for which taxes have been withheld, and excludes stock options and other deferred compensation for which taxes have not yet been withhe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $200,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $104.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $34.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $350,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $325,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $24.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $18.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

Volume$104.62K

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $200,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y

KALSHI

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $225,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y

KALSHI

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $250,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y

KALSHI

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $275,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y

KALSHI

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $300,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New Y

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48¢

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Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

Markets (7)

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

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Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $225,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $250,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $275,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $300,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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