Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary market from Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T05:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of how it resolved. The supplied evidence contains no resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T12:54:07.111Z [1]. These are the only timestamps that describe the snapshot, and the prices below are not current quotes as of today.
At observation, the saved outcomes were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one saved market, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either view.
Because the sample covers one contract, no comparison across platforms or events is possible here. The coverage record shows one market in the saved event, all of it included, with no partial sample [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and this note does not attribute any movement to news or events. It also does not show how the market has behaved before or since the observation time, or whether the prices were accurate forecasts.
A reader comparing this contract with other Bitcoin contracts should check the exact wording, the TWAP window, the resolution source, and the listed close time. Contracts with different windows or sources are not directly comparable, and a price difference between them does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-horizon Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET" in the crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will rise or fall over one specific five-minute window. It is an event-style market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The contract's resolution rule compares two prices. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The TWAP is generated by Chainlink, and the stated resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The stream's name refers to a 60-second TWAP [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BTC/USD, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means that exchange prices or other Bitcoin quotes outside that stream do not determine the outcome, even if they appear to move in a similar direction. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-31T05:15:00.000Z [1]. That date appears in the contract rules as the listed end of the window and is not a separate announced event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window rather than a single instant, the outcome depends on the TWAP data stream and not on the price at one moment. Traders and readers should read the resolution wording closely, since the rules name one specific data stream as the only price reference [1]. Any price shown for the contract is a snapshot from the provider data and is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title with the price at the beginning of that range. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, it resolves to "Up". Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The stated resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the outcome is already known?
The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-31T05:15:00.000Z and a status of active [1]. The saved status describes the provider record and does not show how the market resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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