Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

How many jobs added in October?

Name: How many jobs added in October?
End: 2026-11-07T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.97K

Events

Markets

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How many jobs added in October?

Vol

$20.97K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.97K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.97K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Poly	30%
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?	Poly	19%
Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?	Poly	16%
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?	Poly	13%
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?	Poly	13%
Will the US lose more than 25k jobs in October?	Poly	3%
Will the US lose between 0 and 25k jobs in October?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$20.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many jobs added in October?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (27 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US lose more than 25k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US lose between 0 and 25k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $547
  DATA: [Yes: 12.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy