Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Total Volume

$34.92K

Events

Markets

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Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Vol

$34.92K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $34.92K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $34.92K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	71%
Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	20%
Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	12%
Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$34.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Nov 5, 2026 meeting If the Bank of Mexico takes the action X more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Mexico rate decision in November
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 5, 2026 meeting

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action X more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Volume$34.92K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy r

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut 25bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only c

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike more than 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy ra

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike 25bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only

KALSHI

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike 50bps at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only

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Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

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Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

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Events (1)

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Markets (7)

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike more than 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?

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Discussion

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