Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will DHS adopt a $100k OPT fee this year?

Total Volume

$3.24

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will DHS adopt a $100k OPT fee this year?

Vol

$3.24

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.24

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.24

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Department of Homeland Security

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Department of Homeland Security	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$3.24

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, including U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, announces the adoption of one or more nonrefundable charges totaling at least $100,000 per F-1 student, payable by the student or an employer, as a generally applicable condition for obtaining or maintaining post-completion Optional Practical Training employment authorization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will DHS adopt a $100k OPT fee this year?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, including U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, announces the adoption of one or more nonrefundable charges totaling at least $100,000 per F-1 student, payable by the student or an employer, as a generally applicable condition for obtaining or maintaining post-completion Optional Practical Training employment authorization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early c

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Department of Homeland Security
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 9, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics