Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?

Total Volume

$420.92

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?

Vol

$420.92

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $420.92

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $420.92

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?	Kalshi	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$420.92

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs announces its receipt for review of a final rule from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security establishing fees for Optional Practical Training before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Proposed rules, regulatory agenda entries and announcements of plans to issue a final rule do NOT qualify. An interim final rule qualifies. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs announces its receipt for review of a final rule from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security establishing fees for Optional Practical Training before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Proposed rules, regulatory agenda entries and announcements of plans to issue a final rule do NOT qualify. An interim final rule qualifies. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs announces its receipt for review of a final rule from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security establishing fees for Optional Practical Training before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Proposed rules, regulatory agenda"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $421
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics