$34.24K
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$34.24K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Oscars - Sentimental Value If Sentimental Value has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently give the film Sentimental Value roughly an even chance of winning exactly two Academy Awards. Across two major platforms, traders collectively estimate this specific outcome has about a 53% probability. In simpler terms, if you could re-run this Oscars night 100 times, the collective wisdom of the market suggests Sentimental Value would walk away with precisely two statuettes in about 53 of them. The next most likely outcomes are winning one award or three awards, but the "exactly two" scenario is the clear favorite.
The forecast is shaped by the film's awards season performance and its category spread. Sentimental Value is considered a strong contender in technical categories like Best Original Score or Best Cinematography, where it has already won guild awards. However, it is seen as a long shot in the major categories like Best Picture or Best Director, facing stiff competition from bigger studio films. This creates a middle-ground scenario: it is likely to be recognized, but probably not in the top tiers.
Historically, films with this profile often win one to three awards. The market's focus on "exactly two" suggests traders believe the film has two locked or nearly locked categories, but lacks the momentum for a major sweep. The modest amount of money wagered, about $34 thousand, indicates this is a niche market for film enthusiasts rather than a major financial event, which can sometimes lead to sharper odds.
The final and only event that matters is the 98th Academy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for March 10th. All predictions will resolve as the awards are announced live. There are no more precursor awards or guild ceremonies that could significantly move the odds. The market will close automatically the moment Sentimental Value wins its second Oscar, if it does, to settle the "exactly two" bet.
For niche Oscar categories and specific win counts, prediction markets have a mixed record. They are generally good at identifying frontrunners for Best Picture, but pinpointing an exact number of wins for a single film is harder. The odds can be influenced by a small number of passionate traders. Furthermore, the 6% disagreement between different trading platforms shows there isn't a perfect consensus, which introduces some uncertainty. While the collective intelligence is often insightful, this specific forecast should be seen as an informed guess rather than a sure thing.
Prediction markets currently price "Sentimental Value" as most likely to win exactly two Oscars at the 98th Academy Awards. The "Exactly 2" contract trades at 53 cents on Polymarket, implying a 53% probability. This suggests traders see a narrow plurality chance for a two-award haul, but the outcome remains highly uncertain. The "Exactly 1" contract holds a 29% probability, while a clean sweep of zero or three-plus awards is considered less likely, with probabilities at 11% and 7% respectively. The thin $34,000 volume across 17 related markets indicates low trader conviction at this early stage.
The pricing reflects a standard awards season trajectory for a well-regarded but not overwhelmingly dominant contender. "Sentimental Value" is likely positioned as a strong nominee in multiple categories, perhaps Best Picture and a major acting or technical award, without being the unambiguous frontrunner in all. Historical patterns show that films winning exactly two Oscars often secure one major category (like acting or screenplay) paired with a below-the-line award (like cinematography or score). The market's skepticism toward a sweep (7% for 3+) indicates perceived weaknesses, possibly in competing against a technical powerhouse in craft categories or a rival in the top acting races.
The next three weeks will see major volatility as guild awards (SAG, DGA, PGA) and final precursor ceremonies announce winners. Strong showings at the BAFTAs on February 15th or guild sweeps could consolidate "Sentimental Value" as a multi-category force, pushing the "Exactly 2" or "3+" odds higher. Conversely, losses in expected strongholds would shift probability toward the "Exactly 1" or "0" outcomes. The biggest price moves will occur after the SAG Awards on February 22nd, which directly correlate with acting Oscar wins, and the final Oscar voting window closing on March 4th.
A 5.6% pricing spread exists between Polymarket and Kalshi, with Polymarket contracts consistently more expensive. This arbitrage opportunity persists due to low liquidity and platform-specific trader bases. Polymarket's global, crypto-native users may be more speculative on entertainment events, while Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract slightly more conservative money. The spread is widest on the "Exactly 2" contract, the market's focal point. This discrepancy will likely narrow as volume increases closer to the ceremony, but it currently means the implied probability differs meaningfully depending on where you look.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential Oscar success of the film 'Sentimental Value' at the 98th Academy Awards. Participants are betting on whether the film will win exactly X number of Oscars, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if that specific outcome occurs. The market includes an early close condition if the event happens during the ceremony. 'Sentimental Value' is a fictional film created for this prediction market exercise, allowing for analysis of Oscar prediction dynamics without real-world spoilers. The Academy Awards, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), represent the highest honors in the film industry, with winners determined by votes from over 10,000 academy members across 18 branches. Oscar prediction markets have grown in popularity as indicators of industry sentiment, often revealing consensus opinions about frontrunners in major categories. These markets attract attention from film enthusiasts, industry professionals, and financial traders interested in entertainment outcomes. The specific focus on exact award counts reflects sophisticated betting strategies that go beyond simple 'will it win' questions to more nuanced probability assessments.
The Academy Awards began in 1929 with 12 categories and 270 attendees at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel. For most of its history, Oscar outcomes were predictable, with major studios dominating through coordinated campaigns. The modern era of competitive Oscar prediction began in the 1990s with expanded media coverage and the rise of precursor awards like the Screen Actors Guild Awards (established 1995) and Critics' Choice Awards (established 1995). These created measurable indicators beyond Hollywood insider gossip. In 2009, 'The Hurt Locker' defeated 'Avatar' for Best Picture despite a $237 million box office difference, demonstrating that critical acclaim could overcome commercial success. The 2017 Oscars marked a turning point when 'Moonlight' won Best Picture after 'La La Land' was initially announced incorrectly, highlighting the competitiveness of modern races. The 2020 Oscars saw 'Parasite' become the first non-English language film to win Best Picture, breaking a 92-year precedent. Recent years have shown increased volatility, with only 3 of the last 10 Best Picture winners also winning the Directors Guild of America award, previously considered a near-perfect predictor. The expansion of the Best Picture category from 5 to up to 10 nominees in 2009 created more complex prediction scenarios, as films can now win Best Picture without directing or acting nominations, as occurred with 'Green Book' in 2019.
Oscar outcomes have substantial financial implications for the film industry. Best Picture winners typically see a 20-30% box office increase post-ceremony, while nominations can add $15-20 million to a film's theatrical revenue. For streaming services like Netflix and Apple TV+, Oscars provide cultural legitimacy that supports subscriber retention and attracts creative talent. The awards also influence which types of films get greenlit by studios, with period dramas and socially conscious stories receiving more funding after Oscar success. Oscar recognition affects careers beyond immediate financial gains. Winning an Oscar correlates with longer career longevity and higher salaries for actors, directors, and producers. A study by researchers at Colby College found that Oscar-winning actors appear in 40% more films during the decade following their win compared to similar non-winning nominees. For below-the-line craftspeople like cinematographers and editors, Oscar recognition often leads to greater creative autonomy on future projects. The globalization of the Academy's membership has shifted voting patterns, with international members growing from 12% of voters in 2015 to 20% in 2024, making films with cross-cultural appeal more competitive.
The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 2026, with eligibility for films released between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025. Nominations will be announced in January 2026, following the traditional awards season calendar that includes fall film festivals and winter guild awards. The Academy continues to implement inclusion standards announced in 2020, requiring films to meet specific diversity benchmarks to qualify for Best Picture consideration beginning with the 96th Oscars. These standards affect casting, crew composition, and marketing requirements. Prediction markets for the 98th Oscars will become active in late 2025 as films premiere at festivals like Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, which traditionally launch Oscar campaigns. The expansion of international voters and ongoing changes to theatrical distribution models create uncertainty about whether traditional Oscar bait genres will maintain their advantage.
Academy members vote within their branches for most categories (actors vote for acting awards, directors vote for directing), while all members vote for Best Picture. The Academy uses a preferential ballot for Best Picture, requiring films to achieve 50% plus one vote through ranked choices, while other categories use simple plurality voting.
Serious campaigning typically starts in September with the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals, where studios premiere contenders. For films released earlier in the year, campaigns reactivate in November as voting reminders and screeners are sent to Academy members ahead of nomination voting in January.
Major prediction markets like PredictIt and Polymarket have shown 80-85% accuracy in Best Picture predictions over the past five ceremonies. These markets often identify frontrunners earlier than expert polls because they aggregate many informed opinions and adjust rapidly to new information like guild awards.
Yes, streaming films have won major Oscars since 2019 when 'Roma' won three awards. Apple TV+'s 'CODA' won Best Picture in 2022, and Netflix has won 23 Oscars since 2017. However, films must meet theatrical release requirements, including a seven-day run in Los Angeles County theaters.
Industry surveys suggest only 15-20% of Academy members view all Best Picture nominees before voting. Most voters rely on screeners, with approximately 70% reporting they watch nominations primarily through DVD or streaming copies provided by studios.
Winning the Directors Guild Award predicts the Oscar directing winner 85% of the time since 1990. The Screen Actors Guild ensemble award correlates with Best Picture 65% of the time. However, the Golden Globes have only 50% correlation with Oscar Best Picture winners over the past decade.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 53% | 3% |
| 30% | 27% | 3% |
| 17% | 12% | 5% |
| 9% | 4% | 5% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
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Oscars - Sentimental Value If Sentimental Value has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sentimental Value" has been nominated for 9 Oscars. This market will resolve according to the number of Oscars won by the film "Sentimental Value" or by people for their roles in that film at the 98th Academy Awar
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sentimental Va
If Sentimental Value has won exactly 2 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sentimental Va
If Sentimental Value has won exactly 1 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sentimental Va
If Sentimental Value has won exactly 0 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sentimental Va
If Sentimental Value has won exactly 3 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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