Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

Total Volume

$4.90K

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Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

Vol

$4.90K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.90K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.90K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.9 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 9.0 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be above 9.0 on Oct 13, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$4.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 13, 2026 If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 13, 2026

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is below 8.4% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $637
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 9.0 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.9 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.8 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $838
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $697
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $891
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be above 9.0 on Oct 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $786
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

On Oct 13, 2026 If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, is Y Z at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$4.90K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.4% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.7% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.5% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is exactly 8.6% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is below 8.4% at exactly 5:05 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Average Yes Price

13¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/e-Xo-g" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?"></iframe>

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Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

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Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

Markets (9)

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

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Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.7 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.5 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be exactly 8.6 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

Will the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be below 8.4 on Oct 13, 2026?

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