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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Dave Portnoy score a pizza place a 9 or higher again in 2026? | Kalshi | 60% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2027 If Dave Portnoy reviews any pizza place and scores it a 9.0 or higher before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 60% probability that Dave Portnoy will award a pizza review score of 9.0 or higher to any pizzeria before January 1, 2027. This price, trading at 60 cents on Kalshi, indicates the market views the event as more likely than not, but still carries significant uncertainty. The timeframe encompasses the remainder of 2024, all of 2025, and 2026.
The pricing reflects two primary factors. First is the historical rarity of elite scores from Portnoy. His "One Bite" reviews are infamous for a tough grading scale where scores above 8.5 are exceptional. A score of 9.0 or higher represents a near-perfect rating, an event that has occurred only a handful of times in years of reviews, making any single review a low-probability event. Second, the extended timeframe is a major driver of the 60% probability. With over two years remaining for the event, the market is pricing in the cumulative likelihood of Portnoy visiting hundreds of pizzerias, increasing the statistical chance he encounters what he deems a truly transcendent slice.
The odds are most sensitive to Portnoy's review schedule and scoring trends. A publicized tour of historically renowned pizza hubs like New Haven or specific acclaimed locations could temporarily increase Yes probabilities. Conversely, a string of mediocre reviews or public comments from Portnoy about declining pizza standards could dampen confidence. The market will react sharply to any review scoring in the 8.5-8.9 range, as that would signal he is in a generous scoring period and a 9.0+ may be imminent. The most definitive catalyst, of course, would be the event itself, triggering an early market resolution to Yes.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
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This prediction market topic centers on whether Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports and creator of the 'One Bite' pizza review series, will award a score of 9.0 or higher to any pizza establishment before January 1, 2027. Portnoy's pizza reviews, where he famously takes 'one bite' and delivers an immediate numerical score, have evolved from a viral internet segment into a significant cultural and economic force within the food industry. A score of 9.0 or above represents near-perfection in his rating system, an accolade he has historically been extremely reluctant to give, making such an event noteworthy. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if any review meets this threshold, and will close early if the event occurs, creating a dynamic betting environment based on Portnoy's notoriously unpredictable and subjective judging criteria. Interest in this market stems from Portnoy's massive influence, where a high score can dramatically boost a pizzeria's business, and from the ongoing debate among fans about whether his scoring has become more conservative over time. The question taps into broader discussions about food criticism in the digital age, the power of influencer marketing, and the elusive quest for culinary perfection as defined by one of the internet's most polarizing personalities.
Dave Portnoy's pizza review journey began unofficially around 2016, with early videos featuring casual, off-the-cuff reviews of pizzerias, primarily in the Northeast. The format crystallized with his signature 'one bite, everybody knows the rules' catchphrase. Historically, Portnoy was slightly more generous with top scores. In the series' earlier years, he awarded a 9.4 to Pepe's Pizzeria Napoletana in New Haven, Connecticut, in 2017, and a 9.1 to Sally's Apizza, also in New Haven, in 2019. These scores set a high-water mark that he has not approached in a formal review for several years. The creation of the One Bite app in 2019 formalized the community aspect, separating crowd ratings from Portnoy's personal scores. Since the sale of Barstool Sports and the expansion of his review travels nationwide, many observers note a tightening of his scoring scale, with scores in the 8.0-8.5 range becoming the new benchmark for excellence. The last score of 9.0 or above given in a standard video review was the 9.1 to Sally's Apizza in 2019, establishing a multi-year drought for the top tier of his rating system.
The significance of a 9.0+ score extends beyond a simple food review into the realms of economics and cultural influence. For a small business pizza shop, receiving such a score from Portnoy can be transformative, leading to a massive influx of customers, widespread media coverage, and a permanent boost in revenue, a phenomenon thoroughly documented as the 'Barstool Bump.' This market, therefore, indirectly bets on which small business owner might receive a life-changing endorsement. Culturally, it reflects the power shift in criticism from established institutions like newspaper food critics to individual digital influencers whose subjective opinions carry immense weight. A high score also matters to Portnoy's brand, as it reinforces his authority as a pizza tastemaker and generates peak engagement for his content. The prolonged absence of a top score leads to fan speculation about whether his standards have become impossibly high or if he is deliberately preserving the rarity of a perfect rating to maintain the segment's drama and value.
As of late 2024 and heading into 2025, Dave Portnoy continues to regularly release new pizza reviews across the United States. His most recent high scores have consistently fallen in the 8.0 to 8.5 range, with the 8.8 given to L'industrie Pizzeria in 2023 remaining his peak assessment in recent years. The community on the One Bite app continues to rate pizzerias independently, with El Presidente's maintaining its 9.1 average. Portnoy has not publicly indicated any shift in his scoring philosophy, and the quest for a modern-day 9.0+ score remains a active topic of discussion among his followers. The prediction market is active based on the possibility that his travels may eventually lead him to a pizza he deems worthy of breaking the long-standing streak.
The highest score Dave Portnoy has ever awarded in a standard review is a 9.4 to Pepe's Pizzeria Napoletana in New Haven, Connecticut, during a 2017 review. However, this score came earlier in the series' history, and his scoring has appeared to become more conservative since then.
The One Bite app displays an average rating from all its users who have reviewed a pizzeria. Dave Portnoy's personal score, given in his video reviews, is his own subjective rating. They are separate metrics, and a pizzeria can have a high app rating (like a 9.1) without ever having been formally reviewed or highly scored by Portnoy himself.
No, Dave Portnoy has never awarded a perfect 10.0 score to any pizza in his official One Bite review series. He has stated that a 10.0 is theoretically reserved for a flawless, life-changing pizza experience, a standard he suggests may be unattainable, which adds to the significance of scores in the 9.0+ range.
A positive review from Dave Portnoy, especially one with a high score, typically results in the 'Barstool Bump.' This involves a massive, immediate surge in customers, often leading to hours-long lines, sold-out inventory, and significant national media attention that can permanently increase the business's profile and revenue.
New episodes of Dave Portnoy's One Bite pizza reviews are primarily posted on the Barstool Sports website and his personal social media channels, especially YouTube and X (formerly Twitter). The reviews are also frequently clipped and shared across various social media platforms by fans.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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