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Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

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What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

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7 markets tracked

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	72%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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72%

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About This Event

Jul 1, 2026 If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between X to Y then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect, i.e., being collected, on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but no

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Jul 1, 2026

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between X to Y then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect, i.e., being collected, on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but no

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 50 to 60%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the spe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

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KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 10 to 19.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified d

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.4¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 40 to 49.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the

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What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

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Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

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Events (1)

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

Markets (7)

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

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Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?

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