This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1, 5PM ET?

Name: Bitcoin above ___ on May 1, 5PM ET?
End: 2026-05-01T21:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Bitcoin above ___ on May 1, 5PM ET?

Vol

$1.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 1, 5PM ET?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	100%
Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	100%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	51%
Bitcoin above 77,600 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	50%
Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	49%
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	49%
Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	49%
Bitcoin above 78,000 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	48%
Bitcoin above 80,400 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	1%
Bitcoin above 80,000 on May 1, 5PM ET?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$1.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bitcoin above ___ on May 1, 5PM ET?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $658
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Bitcoin above 78,000 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Bitcoin above 80,000 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Bitcoin above 80,400 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 99.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.2% (0.0%)]

### 8. Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Bitcoin above 77,600 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 1, 5PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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