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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

Name: Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$216.22K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

Vol

$216.22K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $216.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $216.22K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Poly	97%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$216.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colombia’s current leader, President Gustavo Petro, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Petro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Colombia within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, August 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colombia’s current leader, President Gustavo Petro, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Petro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Colombia within this market's timeframe. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will im"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $216.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.60)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $41.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $175.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics