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$117.61K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colombia’s current leader, President Gustavo Petro, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Petro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Colombia within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repor
Traders on prediction markets currently see a very high likelihood that Gustavo Petro will no longer be Colombia's president by the end of this year. The market price translates to a roughly 93% probability, meaning traders believe it is almost certain he will be removed from power before December 31. This is an exceptionally strong level of collective confidence in a major political change happening within months.
Two main factors are driving this prediction. First, President Petro is facing a formal impeachment investigation by Colombia's Congress. The investigation, opened in December 2023, centers on allegations of illegal campaign financing and potential improper influence. While Colombian presidents are notoriously difficult to remove, this official congressional process creates a direct, legal pathway for his ouster.
Second, Petro's political standing has weakened significantly. His legislative coalition has fractured, stalling his ambitious reform agenda. Widespread protests against his government's policies have occurred, and his approval ratings have fallen. Historically, when a Latin American leader faces a combination of low popularity, a fractured support base, and an active impeachment inquiry, their risk of early removal increases. The market is betting this pattern will hold.
The timeline of the congressional investigation will be critical. The Accusations Committee of Colombia's House of Representatives is conducting the probe. Any formal recommendation from this committee to impeach would be a major signal. A vote by the full House to send the case to the Senate for a trial would sharply increase the perceived likelihood of removal.
Beyond impeachment, traders are watching for other potential triggers. These include massive, sustained protests that could force a resignation, or a major judicial ruling against Petro or his inner circle that makes his position untenable. A decision by his remaining political allies to withdraw their support could also accelerate the timeline.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on political survival questions, especially when there is a clear formal process like impeachment. However, the 93% probability is extremely high for an event months away. It suggests traders believe the outcome is nearly decided. The main limitation here is that political negotiations can be unpredictable. A behind-the-scenes deal could collapse the impeachment process, or Petro could rally public support in a way markets aren't anticipating. While the odds heavily favor removal, the actual political mechanics in Bogotá will determine the final outcome.
Prediction markets assign a 93% probability that Gustavo Petro will be removed as Colombia's president before December 31. This price, trading at 93¢ for "Yes" on Polymarket, indicates near-certainty among traders. With only 7¢ for "No," the market views Petro completing his term through 2026 as a highly unlikely scenario. The market has attracted $118,000 in volume, showing substantial trader conviction in this outcome.
The extreme odds reflect Colombia's intense political crisis. Petro faces multiple, simultaneous threats to his presidency. A congressional investigation into alleged illegal campaign financing is advancing, with accusations that his 2022 campaign received money from drug traffickers. This "narcocampaign" scandal could lead to impeachment proceedings. Concurrently, his eldest son, Nicolás Petro, has been arrested on money laundering charges, creating a direct legal and political vulnerability. Historically, Colombian presidents facing such consolidated legal and political pressure have not completed their terms. The market is pricing in the high probability that one of these avenues succeeds.
The 7% price for "No" represents two narrow paths for Petro's survival. First, he could secure a political pact with major congressional blocs, trading policy concessions for protection from impeachment. Second, the investigations could stall or fail to produce a conclusive, impeachable offense before the deadline. A key date is the conclusion of the Congressional Accusations Committee's investigation. If it recommends impeachment, the Senate would then trial the president. A decision by the committee to archive the case would be a major bullish signal for Petro, likely causing the "No" share price to spike. However, the current political momentum strongly favors his removal.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential removal of Gustavo Petro from the presidency of Colombia before a specified date. Petro, Colombia's first leftist president, took office in August 2022. His administration has faced significant political turbulence, including multiple congressional investigations, a major cabinet reshuffle in 2023, and widespread protests against his proposed social reforms. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Petro resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses or is prevented from fulfilling his presidential duties within the timeframe. The question reflects genuine uncertainty about political stability in Colombia, where no president has been successfully impeached in the modern democratic era, but several have faced serious attempts. Interest stems from Petro's controversial policy agenda, his confrontations with traditional power centers, and Colombia's history of political volatility. Observers monitor several specific threats, including ongoing probes by the Attorney General's office, the potential for a political trial in Congress, and the possibility of mass unrest forcing his resignation.
Colombia's modern presidential system, established by the 1991 Constitution, has mechanisms for removing a sitting president but has never successfully done so through impeachment. The closest precedent was the 1996 impeachment process against President Ernesto Samper for accepting Cali Cartel campaign funds. Samper was investigated by Congress but ultimately acquitted by the Chamber of Representatives in June 1996, allowing him to finish his term. A more recent case involved President Álvaro Uribe, who faced a congressional commission in 2010 over alleged illegal wiretaps, but the process did not advance to a full trial. The constitutional framework requires the Chamber of Representatives to bring charges and the Senate to conduct the trial, with a two-thirds majority needed for conviction. This high bar has protected presidents from removal, but political pressure has forced resignations in other branches, such as the 2023 resignation of Attorney General Francisco Barbosa following a scandal. The stability of the presidential office contrasts with frequent cabinet turnovers and high levels of political polarization.
Petro's potential removal would represent a seismic shift in Colombian politics, ending the nation's first experiment with leftist governance and likely triggering a period of intense instability. The immediate consequence would be the assumption of power by Vice President Francia Márquez, which could provoke constitutional disputes given her own controversial status with traditional elites. Economically, prolonged uncertainty would likely depress investor confidence and destabilize the Colombian peso, which is sensitive to political news. The country's investment-grade credit rating, maintained through multiple administrations, could be at risk if institutions appear weakened. Socially, Petro's removal could ignite massive protests from his supporters, who view his election as a historic victory for marginalized groups. This could lead to clashes with security forces and deepen societal divisions. The event would also test the resilience of Colombia's democratic institutions, potentially setting a new precedent for presidential accountability or, conversely, revealing them as tools for political vendettas.
As of late April 2024, President Petro remains in office but faces mounting challenges. The Attorney General's office continues its investigations, though no formal charges have been filed. In Congress, opposition senators have called for political control debates, but no impeachment complaint has been formally submitted or admitted for processing. Petro's government is attempting to advance its legislative agenda, including a contentious health reform, while managing coalition dynamics. The political atmosphere remains highly charged, with both supporters and opponents of the president mobilizing for potential confrontations.
The Colombian Constitution (Article 175) states the President can be impeached for crimes committed in office or for personal misconduct. The process requires an accusation from the Chamber of Representatives and a trial in the Senate. Specific legal grounds typically involve allegations of corruption, abuse of authority, or violation of the constitution.
Vice President Francia Márquez would assume the presidency for the remainder of the term, which ends in August 2026. The line of succession then falls to the president of the Senate, followed by the president of the Chamber of Representatives, if the vice presidency is also vacant.
No president has been successfully impeached and removed under the 1991 Constitution. President Ernesto Samper faced an impeachment trial in 1996 over allegations of accepting drug cartel money for his campaign, but he was acquitted by the Chamber of Representatives and completed his term.
There is no fixed timeline. The process involves multiple stages in congressional committees and full chambers. Historical examples, like the Samper case, suggest it can take several months from the initial complaint to a final Senate verdict, if it reaches that stage.
The Attorney General investigates potential crimes. If they find sufficient evidence, they can formally accuse the president before the Chamber of Representatives, which then decides whether to admit the accusation and proceed with an impeachment trial. The Attorney General cannot remove a president directly.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
2 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 93% |
| Poly | 3% |
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