This prediction market topic concerns the political stability of Colombian President Gustavo Petro and the possibility of his removal from power before June 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Petro resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his presidential duties within this timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Gustavo Petro, Colombia's first leftist president, took office on August 7, 2022, after winning the election with 50.44% of the vote. His presidency represents a historic shift for Colombia, traditionally governed by center-right or right-wing parties. Petro's administration has pursued ambitious reforms, including tax increases, healthcare system overhauls, and a controversial 'Total Peace' policy aimed at negotiating with armed groups. These policies have generated significant political polarization and institutional friction. The market's timeframe extends through the final year of his four-year term, a period when political pressure often intensifies. Interest in this market stems from Colombia's history of political volatility, ongoing investigations into Petro's 2022 campaign finances, and the challenging coalition politics that have characterized his government. Observers are monitoring multiple potential pathways for removal, including impeachment proceedings, health-related incapacity, or resignation under pressure.

Historical Context

Colombia has experienced presidential removals and near-removals throughout its modern history, creating precedents relevant to this market. In 1953, President Laureano Gómez was deposed by a military coup led by General Gustavo Rojas Pinilla. More recently, the 1990s saw multiple presidential crises, including the forced resignation of President Ernesto Samper in 1996 following a political scandal, though he completed his term. The most relevant modern precedent involves President Álvaro Uribe, who faced impeachment attempts in 2006 and 2007 that ultimately failed, demonstrating the high threshold for removal. The 1991 Constitution established clearer removal procedures, including impeachment by the Senate for specific constitutional violations. Historically, Colombian presidents facing strong opposition have often struggled during their final years in office, with declining approval ratings and legislative gridlock becoming common. Petro's situation echoes aspects of these historical patterns, particularly the combination of ambitious reform agendas meeting institutional resistance. The current political climate also reflects Colombia's ongoing transition from decades of internal conflict, where presidential stability remains a sensitive issue.

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