Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?
Total Volume
$225.81K
Events
1
Markets
1
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $225.81K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $225.81K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 31% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
31%
Top Probability
$225.81K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give a meeting between Donald Trump and Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez roughly a 1 in 3 chance of happening by March 31. This means traders collectively see such a meeting as unlikely, but not impossible. The market reflects significant skepticism that the two will have a direct, qualifying interaction within the next five weeks.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The low probability stems from political and diplomatic realities. Delcy Rodríguez is a top official in the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro, which the United States has not formally recognized since 2019. The U.S. instead recognizes the opposition-led National Assembly as the legitimate authority. A high-profile meeting between Trump and Rodríguez would mark a dramatic and unexpected shift in U.S. policy.
Furthermore, Trump’s current focus is on his presidential campaign and domestic legal matters. Engaging in a controversial diplomatic move with a Venezuelan leader often criticized by his own political base could be seen as a high-risk, low-reward action. Historically, U.S. outreach to Venezuela’s government has typically occurred through lower-level channels or backdoor diplomacy, not a direct vice-presidential meeting.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The deadline for this market is March 31. Watch for any scheduled international summits or diplomatic conferences where both figures might be present, such as the United Nations General Assembly or regional forums. However, no major events are scheduled that would naturally bring them together. A sudden announcement of a Trump media appearance or a shift in U.S. sanctions policy toward Venezuela could also signal a change in posture. The most likely trigger would be an official statement from either side confirming planned talks.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Markets are generally reliable at aggregating known political constraints, and the odds here align with expert analysis of the diplomatic situation. For specific, binary events like a scheduled meeting between two high-profile figures, prediction markets have a mixed record. They are good at assessing stable political environments, but can be less accurate if a sudden, secretive diplomatic breakthrough occurs. The moderate amount of money wagered suggests informed interest, but the possibility of an unexpected political maneuver means the 33% chance still carries real uncertainty.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a 33% probability that Donald Trump will meet with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026. This price, trading at 33¢ on a $1.00 contract, indicates the market views a meeting as unlikely but not impossible. With over $225,000 in volume, the market has attracted significant speculative interest, suggesting traders see meaningful uncertainty in the outcome.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The low probability reflects the complex diplomatic and political constraints. Delcy Rodríguez is a senior official in the Nicolás Maduro government, which the United States has not formally recognized since 2019. A direct meeting with a major U.S. presidential candidate would be a stark diplomatic shift. Historical precedent is also a factor. During his first term, Trump’s administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president and imposed heavy sanctions on Maduro’s regime. A meeting with Rodríguez would contradict that established policy and could provoke significant domestic political backlash during an election cycle.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary catalyst for a major price shift would be a clear signal from the Trump campaign regarding its Venezuela policy. If Trump or senior advisors publicly suggest openness to engaging with the Maduro government to address issues like oil prices or migration, the probability would likely rise. Conversely, a reaffirmation of the previous policy of non-recognition and support for the opposition would push odds lower. The market will also react to external events, such as a sudden crisis in Venezuela or a geopolitical development that forces the issue onto the U.S. agenda before the resolution date. The long time horizon, over two years, means numerous unforeseen political developments could alter the calculus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.