Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?

Name: Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.62K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$9.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 5h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/e7kmZI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?"></iframe>

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Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?

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Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)