Name: #1 overall pick in 2026?
End: 2026-04-25T00:00:00.000Z

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#1 overall pick in 2026? | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

56 markets tracked

Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

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Cross-Platform Comparison(28)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	91%	92%	1%
Will Carson Beck be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	1%	2%	0%
Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	1%	2%	2%
Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	0%	2%	1%
Will Aidan Chiles be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	1%	1%	1%
Will Keldric Faulk be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	0%	1%	1%
Will Ty Simpson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	1%	1%	0%
Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	1%	1%	0%
Will Sam Leavitt be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	0%	1%	0%
Will Caleb Lomu be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(28)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** #1 overall pick in 2026?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X is selected as the Pro Football First overall pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a polymarket to predict which player is drafted #1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

If the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled or not completed by July 30, 2026, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $341.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6571.96M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (36 mkts) vs Kalshi (48 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aidan Chiles be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $141
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $18.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Cade Klubnik be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Caleb Downs be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Caleb Lomu be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carson Beck be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Conner Weigman be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $983
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $88.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 11. Will Garrett Nussmeier be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jalon Daniels be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $992
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jayden Maiava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will John Mateer be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $982
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Kadyn Proctor be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Keldric Faulk be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Kyron Drones be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Miller Moss be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $725
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Raylen Wilson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 24. Will Sam Leavitt be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Spencer Fano be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $996
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will T.J. Parker be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $998
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Taylen Green be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $954
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Ty Simpson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Trinidad Chambliss)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $25.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Arvell Reese)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Dante Moore)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $83.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Makai Lemon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jeremiyah Love)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Germie Bernard)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Antonio Williams)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Zachariah Branch)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Nicholas Singleton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Noah Fifita)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 39. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Malik Muhammed)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 40. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Makhi Hughes)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 41. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Kaidon Salter)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $471
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 42. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Kaytron Allen)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 43. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jyaire Hill)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 44. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Gennings Dunker)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 45. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Diego Pavia)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 46. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Carnell Tate)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $348
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 47. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Anthony Hill Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 48. Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jermaine Matthews Jr.)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will Matayo Uiagalelei be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will Peter Woods be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $998
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 51. Will Sawyer Robertson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 52. Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 53. Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $882
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 54. Will LT Overton be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $993
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 55. Will David Bailey be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 56. Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

99d 17h remaining

Apr 25, 2026 12:00 AM

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4¢

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4¢

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#1 overall pick in 2026?

NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick

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Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Fernando Mendoza)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Malik Muhammed)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Malik Muhammed)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Trinidad Chambliss)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Trinidad Chambliss)

Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jyaire Hill)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jyaire Hill)

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Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

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Rules & Resolution

#1 overall pick in 2026?

NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick

Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Fernando Mendoza)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Malik Muhammed)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Malik Muhammed)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Trinidad Chambliss)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Trinidad Chambliss)

Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jyaire Hill)

Who will be picked First in the Pro Football Draft? (Jyaire Hill)

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