GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.62K

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná

Vol

$8.62K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	95%
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	3%
Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	1%
Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	1%
Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%
Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$8.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $121.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $516
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $511
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $516
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $511
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $330
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $336
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $544
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $467
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $533
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $434
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $517
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics