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Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

Name: Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?
End: 2026-03-08T02:33:20.958Z

Total Volume

$322.09K

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Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

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Polymarket

markets · $322.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $322.09K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services.

Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $322.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $232.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 21, 2026): Vol $322.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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0¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ePKkLn" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?"></iframe>

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Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

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Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

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