Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

These four contracts ask related but different questions about James Comey's criminal matters. The Kalshi event asks whether the case will be dismissed. Under its rules, a dismissal must cover the entire case: "If only some claims, counts, or defendants are dismissed while the case continues on other matters, this does NOT constitute a dismissal for purposes of this contract." Settlements, plea bargains, and trial verdicts are also excluded [1]. The rules contain a placeholder date ("before X 1, 2027"), and the market titles give different deadlines, Jan 1, 2027 and Jul 1, 2027. The provider excerpt lists no end time [1].

The Polymarket sentencing contract resolves "Yes" only if Comey "is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [2]. The Polymarket charges contract covers charges from an indictment dated April 28, and it resolves "Yes" if all those charges are "dropped, dismissed, withdrawn, or reduced to a non-felony charge" by the same deadline [3]. The reduction clause and the Dec 31 deadline differ from the Kalshi definition, so the charges contract and the Kalshi dismissal contract are not directly comparable.

Reading the snapshot

The data was observed at 2026-10-19 09:00 UTC and retrieved at 09:07 UTC. These prices describe that moment only and are not current quotes.

On Kalshi, the contract for dismissal before Jul 1, 2027 showed Yes at 0.555 and No at 0.445. The contract for dismissal before Jan 1, 2027 showed Yes at 0.33 and No at 0.67 [1]. The two Kalshi prices are separate contracts with different windows, so they should be read individually.

On Polymarket, the prison sentence contract showed Yes at 0.013 and No at 0.987 [2]. The charges dropped contract showed Yes at 0.195 and No at 0.805 [3]. These are two separate Polymarket events, so their prices are not ranked against each other.

These values are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so they cannot indicate liquidity or agreement.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes every saved market for these four events. The coverage data reports no partial samples [1][2][3]. The provider warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." Nothing in the evidence explains why any price moved.

The evidence contains no recent news on the case, no listed Kalshi end time, and no court schedule. Contract wording controls resolution. The resolution sources named in the rules, including official government information, court records, and in some cases consensus reporting, would determine the final outcome [2][3].

References

1. Kalshi: Will James Comey’s criminal case be dismissed?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
2. Polymarket: James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
3. Polymarket: James Comey charges dropped by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.