$612.17
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Haiti and Iceland.
Prediction markets currently give Iceland a 38% chance of beating Haiti in their upcoming friendly match. This means traders see Iceland as the underdog, with roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The market suggests the most likely outcome is either a Haitian victory or a draw. With very little money wagered, this is a quiet, speculative market rather than one with strong consensus.
The odds reflect the recent trajectories of both national teams. Iceland, once the Cinderella story of the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup, has seen a notable decline. Their "golden generation" has aged, and the team has struggled in recent qualifying campaigns. Haiti, while not a global powerhouse, has been more competitive in its region. The Haitian team performed respectably in the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup, showing organized play. Friendlies are hard to predict because coaches experiment with lineups, but current form seems to favor Haiti, which is why the market prices them as favorites.
The match itself on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, is the only event that will settle this prediction. However, the team sheets released shortly before kickoff could shift the odds. If Iceland fields a squad full of veteran stars for a farewell match, their chances might improve. If Haiti is missing key players due to club commitments, that could also change the calculus. Watch for the starting lineups about an hour before the game starts.
Prediction markets are generally decent at forecasting sports outcomes when there's significant trading volume and clear data. This specific market has very low volume, making it more volatile and less reliable as a true signal. For international friendlies, accuracy can be lower because team motivation and lineups are unpredictable. The market is likely basing this on recent team rankings and form, which is sensible, but the low stakes of the match itself add uncertainty.
The prediction market on Polymarket assigns Iceland a 38% chance of defeating Haiti in their March 31, 2026, friendly. This price indicates the market views an Icelandic victory as the less probable outcome. With only $0 in volume reported across three related markets, liquidity is virtually nonexistent. This lack of trading activity means the current odds are not a reliable consensus and are highly sensitive to any new bets placed.
The low probability for Iceland directly reflects the teams' recent competitive trajectories. Iceland failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and the 2024 European Championship, signaling a decline from their 2016-2018 peak. Haiti, while not a global powerhouse, demonstrated significant progress by qualifying for the 2023 Women's World Cup and has shown improved results in CONCACAF men's competitions. For a neutral-site friendly, current form and squad motivation often outweigh historical reputation. The market's pricing suggests a recognition that Haiti's program is ascending while Iceland's is in a transitional phase.
Any official squad announcement before the match will be the primary catalyst. If Iceland's federation commits a full-strength squad with key veterans, the odds could shift rapidly. Conversely, news of Haiti fielding its strongest available lineup would likely cement its position as the favorite. The extreme lack of liquidity means a single bet of a few hundred dollars could swing the probability by 20 percentage points or more. This market will remain volatile and largely speculative until concrete team news emerges closer to the March 31 kickoff.
This contract is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and further isolates the price discovery. The 38% probability exists in a vacuum, untested by competing liquidity pools. This isolation, combined with the zero-volume status, makes these odds a placeholder rather than a meaningful forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns an upcoming international association football friendly match between the national teams of Haiti and Iceland, scheduled for March 31, 2026. International friendlies are exhibition matches organized by FIFA, the sport's global governing body, outside of official tournament cycles. They allow national teams to test tactics, integrate new players, and prepare for competitive fixtures. This specific match is notable for pairing two nations from different confederations with distinct footballing histories and recent trajectories. Haiti, representing the Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF), and Iceland, from the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), have never faced each other in a senior men's international match, making this a novel fixture. The game is part of the March 2026 international window, a period designated by FIFA for national team activities. These matches often attract betting and prediction market interest due to their role in assessing team form ahead of major tournaments. In 2026, the FIFA World Cup will be held in North America, increasing the significance of preparatory matches for all qualified and aspiring teams. Prediction markets allow participants to wager on outcomes like the match winner, total goals, or specific events, using collective intelligence to forecast results.
Haiti's national football team, nicknamed Les Grenadiers or Les Bicolores, has a CONCACAF-centric history. Its most significant achievement was qualifying for the 1974 FIFA World Cup in West Germany, where it lost all three group stage matches. More recently, Haiti has been a periodic contender in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, reaching the semifinals in 2019. The team's performances have been inconsistent, often affected by domestic political and economic instability. Iceland's national team, known as Strákarnir okkar (Our Boys), experienced a dramatic ascent in the 2010s. Prior to 2014, Iceland had never qualified for a major tournament. This changed with a run to the quarterfinals of UEFA Euro 2016, which included a victory over England. Iceland then qualified for its first FIFA World Cup in 2018. This period, often called the "Icelandic miracle," was built on intensive investment in coaching education and indoor football facilities to overcome the challenging climate. The two nations have no shared competitive history in football. Their only potential point of comparison is through FIFA's World Ranking system, where Iceland has typically held a higher position than Haiti since the ranking's inception in 1992.
For the football federations and teams, this match is a practical tool. It provides competitive preparation outside their usual regional opponents, testing players against different styles of play. A positive result can boost team morale and FIFA ranking points, which influence seeding in future tournament draws. For prediction markets and sports bettors, the match represents a data point. Friendlies can be unpredictable as coaches experiment, but they generate information on team form, player fitness, and tactical trends. This data feeds into odds and forecasts for more significant upcoming matches, including World Cup qualifiers or the tournament itself. The game also holds cultural significance. For Haiti, international sporting events offer a point of national pride and unity. For Iceland, maintaining the competitive standards set in the previous decade is important for the sport's continued development and popularity at home. Broadcast rights and sponsorship associated with the match have minor economic implications for both federations.
As of early 2025, the match is confirmed on the FIFA International Match Calendar for the window of March 23-31, 2026. The specific kick-off time and venue have not been publicly announced. Both national teams are engaged in other competitions. Haiti is participating in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifiers, seeking to earn a spot in the main tournament. Iceland is competing in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League, where its performance can lead to promotion within the league structure or influence European Championship qualifying paths. The coaching staffs for both teams are in place, but final squad selections for the March 2026 window will not be made until closer to the date, dependent on player form and fitness in their club competitions.
The specific venue has not been announced as of early 2025. Friendly matches are often hosted in neutral countries or in one of the participating nations. The location will be confirmed by the respective football associations closer to the match date.
No. The senior men's national teams of Haiti and Iceland have never played an official or friendly match against each other. This will be their first-ever meeting.
No. The match scheduled for March 31, 2026, is an international friendly. It is not part of the official FIFA World Cup qualification process. However, it serves as preparation for teams involved in qualifying or for the World Cup tournament itself later in 2026.
Broadcast rights are typically sold to sports networks and streaming services in each country and internationally. Details on television and online streaming will be announced by broadcasters in the weeks leading up to the match in 2026.
International friendlies allow national teams to experiment with tactics, integrate new players, and build team cohesion without the pressure of tournament points. They are used as preparation for competitive fixtures like continental championships and World Cup qualifiers.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 58% |
| Poly | 23% |
| Poly | 21% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/eTUxTj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Haiti vs. Iceland"></iframe>