This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

Name: What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$246.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

Vol

$246.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $246.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $246.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Poly	31%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Poly	15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	Poly	12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	Poly	8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	Poly	6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$246.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatical

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (168 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatical

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

For CME Gold (GC) futures "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $246.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $228.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $36.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $36.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $16.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $116.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance