What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU? | PredictPedia

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Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?	Kalshi	8%
Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?	Kalshi	8%
Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?	Kalshi	7%
Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?	Kalshi	7%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2030

If X holds a national referendum on leaving the European Union before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Hungary holds a national referendum on leaving the European Union before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.73M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

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What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

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Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

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Events (1)

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Markets (4)

Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Italy hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will Greece hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

Will France hold a referendum on leaving the EU?

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