Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Gemini Argon released on...?

Name: Gemini Argon released on...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$35.22K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Gemini Argon released on...?

Vol

$35.22K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $35.22K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.22K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Poly	33%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?	Poly	18%
Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 29, 2026?	Poly	15%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 30, 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 15, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 23, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 20, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 21, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 31, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 16, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 28, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 25, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 26, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 11, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 17, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 18, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 19, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 22, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 24, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$35.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gemini Argon released on...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (20 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve accordin"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 11, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $883
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $861
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $508
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $776
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $517
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 18, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $892
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 19, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $723
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $764
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $873
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 22, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $750
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 23, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 24, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 25, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $633
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $667
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 28, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $597
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 29, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gemini Argon be released on October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech