Name: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | PredictPedia

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4 markets tracked

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Poly	2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Poly	1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Poly	1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz (chokepoint 6) equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/ar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $689.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $40.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $313.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $115.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $107.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $153.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

1¢

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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

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Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Markets (4)

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

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Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

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