This prediction market tracks whether a specified number of ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day in March, using data from the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch platform. The market resolves based on whether the daily 'Arrivals of Ships' figure for the Strait of Hormuz (designated as chokepoint 6) meets or exceeds a predetermined threshold on any date before March 31, 2026. The count includes container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships, and tankers. Only vessels reported by IMF Portwatch are considered. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through this narrow waterway, making daily transit volumes a critical indicator of global energy supply stability. Interest in this market stems from its function as a real-time barometer of geopolitical risk and trade flow continuity in a region prone to tensions. Disruptions in the strait can immediately impact global oil prices and shipping insurance costs. The IMF's Portwatch system provides a neutral, data-driven source for monitoring this activity, offering a factual basis for assessing maritime traffic amid regional uncertainties involving Iran, the United States, and Gulf Arab states.

Historical Context

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz has been recognized for centuries, but its modern significance is tied to the rise of the Middle East as the world's central oil-producing region. In the 1980s, the strait became a warzone during the Iran-Iraq 'Tanker War,' where both sides attacked commercial shipping. This conflict led to the U.S. reflagging and escorting of Kuwaiti tankers under Operation Earnest Will in 1987-88. More recently, a series of incidents since 2019 have defined the current risk environment. In June 2019, Iran shot down a U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk drone over the strait. Later that summer, Iran seized the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero. These events prompted the U.S. to form the International Maritime Security Construct, a coalition to enhance surveillance and security. A precedent for market resolution occurred in January 2021, when Iran seized the South Korean-flagged tanker Hankuk Chemi, causing a temporary dip in transit traffic as other vessels assessed the threat. Historical patterns show that while Iran has often threatened closure, it has never completely blocked the strait, as doing so would also halt its own exports. Instead, the historical playbook involves calibrated harassment and seizures to exert pressure without triggering a full-scale military response.

Frequently Asked Questions