Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Total Volume

$5.10K

Events

Markets

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Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Vol

$5.10K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.10K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.10K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	41%
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$5.10K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Dec 1, 2026 Before Dec 1, 2026 This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market resolves on whether a measure is called a "wealth tax." Each market names one specific measure and resolves only on that measure, whatever it is named. X measure set out in the Chancellor's Budget statement or in the Budget documents published by HM Treasury qualifies, and it need not be legislated or in force before Dec 1, 2026. Measures announced by the Scottish or We

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Dec 1, 2026 This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market resolves on whether a measure is called a "wealth tax." Each market names one specific measure and resolves only on that measure, whatever it is named. X measure set out in the Chancellor's Budget statement or in the Budget documents published by HM Treasury qualifies, and it need not be legislated or in force before Dec 1, 2026. Measures announced by the Scottish or We

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes.

No market resolves on w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $211
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Volume$5.10K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market resolves on whether a measure is called a "we

KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may res

KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No m

KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market

KALSHI

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market resolves on w

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24¢

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Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

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Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Markets (5)

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

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Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce an increase in the High Value Council Tax Surcharge or a reduction in its £2 million entry threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the replacement of council tax or stamp duty land tax with an annual property or land value tax before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce a new annual tax charged on the total net wealth of individuals above a threshold before Dec 1, 2026?

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