Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

Name: Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
End: 2026-09-07T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$55.96K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

Vol

$55.96K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $55.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $55.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	80%
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	22%
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	17%
Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	17%
Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	9%
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	8%
Will FDP be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$55.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that governmen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 7, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that governmen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $56.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $40.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $16.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will FDP be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld