What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give a low probability that Donald Trump will eliminate capital gains taxes on cryptocurrency by the end of 2025. The odds suggest traders see roughly a 1 in 14 chance of this happening. This means the collective intelligence of the market views the policy as very unlikely to be enacted within this timeframe.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The low probability stems from several practical hurdles. First, eliminating a capital gains tax requires an act of Congress, not just an executive order. Even if Trump wins the 2024 election, he would need supportive majorities in both the House and Senate to pass such a significant tax change, which is not guaranteed.
Second, while Trump has made supportive statements about crypto, his 2024 campaign platform and the official GOP platform do not explicitly call for a full capital gains tax elimination. Promising regulatory clarity or opposing a central bank digital currency is different from passing a complex tax law.
Finally, the fiscal impact would be substantial. The Congressional Budget Office would need to score the cost of such a tax cut, which could face resistance from lawmakers concerned about the federal deficit, regardless of their stance on crypto.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the November 2024 presidential election. A Trump loss would make this outcome impossible. A Trump win would shift attention to January 2025, when the new Congress is seated. The party composition of the House and Senate will be the critical factor. Watch for the introduction of specific tax legislation in 2025 and its progress through congressional committees. Any detailed tax plan released by the Trump campaign or the GOP after the election would also be a major signal.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally useful for aggregating diverse opinions on political outcomes, but they can be volatile around major events like elections. For a specific, complex policy like a tax law change, the markets are reflecting the known procedural difficulties in Washington. Their current low probability is less a forecast of Trump's intent and more a bet on the slow-moving nature of the U.S. legislative process. The prediction could change quickly if, for example, a clear legislative path emerges with strong political backing.
