Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

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Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

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2 markets tracked

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)	Kalshi	54%
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before 2027)	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, June 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 20, 2029

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ejorI5" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?"></iframe>

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Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

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Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)