What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently estimate about a 60% chance that former President Donald Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act if he wins the 2024 election and serves a second term. This is roughly a 3 in 5 probability, meaning traders collectively see it as slightly more likely than not. The forecast reflects a significant level of concern, treating the event as a genuine possibility rather than a remote hypothetical. Across two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, traders have bet over $1.7 million on this and related questions, showing high public interest. There is notable disagreement between platforms, with odds differing by about 17%, which suggests uncertainty about how to interpret Trump's past statements and future intentions.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors are driving these odds. First, Trump's own rhetoric and past actions set a precedent. During his first term, he reportedly asked advisors about using the Insurrection Act during the 2020 racial justice protests. He has also publicly suggested he would use the military for domestic law enforcement, telling a news outlet in 2023 that he would deploy troops to the southern border and possibly to U.S. cities. Second, traders are weighing his campaign's focus on "law and order" and immigration. Some of his policy proposals, like large-scale deportations and securing the border, could create scenarios where a president might consider using military forces domestically if state officials resist or if civil unrest occurs. The Insurrection Act is the legal tool that allows a president to deploy the U.S. military or federalized National Guard inside the country, a power last used in 1992 during the Los Angeles riots.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The critical event is the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025. If Trump is not sworn in, the question becomes moot. Assuming he takes office, the timeline for a potential invocation is open until the end of his term on January 20, 2029. Specific triggers to watch would be any major domestic crisis, such as widespread protests, a border security incident, or a clash between federal and state authorities. Official statements from Trump or his administration directly mentioning the Act or the domestic use of the military would also be strong signals. The market will close immediately if the event happens, so a sudden resolution is possible at any time during the term.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on political outcomes, often outperforming polls for binary yes/no events. However, this specific question is unprecedented. There is no direct historical analogy for forecasting the use of a rare presidential power based on campaign rhetoric. The accuracy will depend heavily on whether Trump's statements are interpreted as concrete plans or political bluster. The 17% spread between platforms shows experts are still debating this. Markets are good at aggregating diverse opinions, but they can be swayed by news headlines and may overreact to dramatic statements. They reflect what informed people believe is likely, not what is legally or normatively certain.