GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Name: Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.68M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Vol

$1.68M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.13M

Kalshi

markets · $556.54K

Price Spread

1.0%avg

max 1.0%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.68M

67%

33%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	16%	17%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(2)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$1.68M

Volume

Markets

22.8%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before Jan 20, 2029 If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 27, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 20, 2029

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal aut"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $717.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 39.38)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $161.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $337.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $219.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Insurrection Act invoked by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Volume$556.54K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible

Volume$1.13M

Markets2

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.0%

Polymarket

15.5%

Kalshi+1.0%

16.5%

Difference:1.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal aut

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? (Before 2027)

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event

POLYMARKET

Insurrection Act invoked by September 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.9¢No 98.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Insurrection Act invoked by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Ins

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Discussion

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Next Market Closes

95d 7h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

17¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ejorI5" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?"></iframe>

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Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?