$1.41K
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3
$1.41K
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3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026 between AC Monza and Frosinone Calcio.
Prediction markets currently assign a narrow 53% probability to AC Monza defeating Frosinone Calcio in their Serie B match on January 17, 2026. This price, trading at 53¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views a Monza victory as marginally more likely than not, but essentially sees the match as a coin flip. With only $1,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting low trader confidence and that this price could be volatile to new information.
The near-even pricing reflects the competitive nature of Serie B and the specific context of this fixture. Historically, matches between mid-table clubs like these are often tightly contested. Monza's slight edge likely accounts for home-field advantage, a factor that typically provides a measurable boost in win probability in football. Furthermore, while specific 2026 squad details are unknown, Monza has recently operated with a more stable financial structure compared to many Serie B clubs, which the market may be pricing in as a minor long-term quality indicator.
The primary catalyst for odds movement will be the release of team news and starting lineups on match day. Any announcement of key player absences due to injury or suspension for either side could sharply swing the probability. Given the low liquidity, even a modest new bet could move the market price significantly. The thin volume means this market is currently more speculative than predictive, and it will become efficient only as kickoff approaches and more concrete information emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the upcoming Serie B football match between AC Monza and Frosinone Calcio, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026. The event allows participants to speculate on the outcome of this specific league fixture, a common practice in sports prediction markets where real-world events are translated into tradable contracts. The match is part of the 2025-2026 Serie B season, Italy's second-tier professional football league, where both clubs compete for promotion to Serie A or seek to avoid relegation. The interest in this particular fixture stems from the competitive nature of Serie B, the historical context between the clubs, and their respective positions in the league table at this stage of the season. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced wisdom to forecast results, with this match offering insights into team form, managerial tactics, and player availability. Recent developments for both clubs, including transfer activity, managerial changes, and performance in the preceding fixtures of the 2025-2026 campaign, directly influence the market's odds and trading volume. People are interested not only for potential financial gain but also as a barometer of fan sentiment and analytical perspectives that differ from traditional sports betting models. The timing in mid-January places the match during a critical period in the league calendar, often following a winter break, where results can significantly shift momentum for the remainder of the season.
The history between AC Monza and Frosinone Calcio is defined by their parallel rises through Italian football and their sporadic direct competitions. AC Monza, founded in 1912, spent most of its history in the lower divisions before the transformative Berlusconi ownership in 2018. The club achieved back-to-back promotions from Serie C to Serie B in 2020, and then to Serie A for the first time ever in 2022. They spent two seasons in the top flight before relegation in 2024. Frosinone, founded in 1906, also has a history outside the elite, with their first Serie A promotion coming in 2015. They have since become a 'yo-yo' club, earning promotion to Serie A in 2018, 2022, and most recently in 2023, before being relegated again in 2024. The direct head-to-head record is limited but significant. In the 2021-2022 Serie B season, both matches ended in draws, a 1-1 tie in Monza and a 0-0 stalemate in Frosinone, as both teams were in promotion contention. Their most recent meetings occurred in Serie A during the 2023-2024 season, where Monza won 1-0 at home in December 2023, and Frosinone secured a 3-2 victory in the return fixture in April 2024. This recent top-flight history adds a layer of rivalry and context to their encounter in Serie B, as both seek to prove their superiority in the quest for immediate promotion.
Beyond the three points at stake, this match has significant implications for the economic and sporting trajectories of both clubs. Serie A participation guarantees substantially higher television revenue, estimated to be over 50 million euros more per season than in Serie B. A successful promotion campaign, therefore, directly impacts club finances, transfer budgets, and the ability to retain key players. For the local communities of Monza and Frosinone, the clubs are major sources of civic pride and economic activity. Matchdays boost local businesses, from hospitality to retail, and sustained success enhances the profile of the cities on a national scale. The match also matters within the broader ecosystem of Italian football. Serie B is notoriously competitive and unpredictable, often described as one of the most difficult leagues to escape. Results between two strong, well-resourced contenders like Monza and Frosinone can create psychological advantages, shift momentum in the promotion race, and influence the strategies of other chasing teams. The outcome informs the narrative of which club's post-relegation project is more effective.
As of the latest information preceding the January 2026 fixture, both teams are engaged in the 2025-2026 Serie B campaign. The exact league positions and form will be determined by results in the first half of the season, leading up to the mid-January date. Key developments to monitor include the final squad registrations following the summer 2025 transfer window, where both clubs were expected to be active to strengthen their promotion pushes. The physical condition of key players like Andrea Colpani and Matías Soulé after the busy holiday fixture period will be a major focus. Furthermore, any tactical adjustments or changes in managerial approach implemented by Palladino and Grosso during the season will be analyzed in the pre-match buildup. The match is scheduled to be played at the Stadio Brianteo in Monza.
The exact kick-off time for the Serie B match on Saturday, January 17, 2026, will be confirmed by the league authorities closer to the date. Serie B fixtures are typically scheduled for afternoon slots such as 14:00, 15:00, or 16:00 CET, or occasionally for evening matches at 18:00 or 20:45 CET.
In Italy, live broadcast rights for Serie B are held by DAZN and Sky Sport. International viewers should check local sports broadcasters or streaming services that hold rights to Serie B in their region. Official club websites often provide information on international TV partners.
The historical head-to-head record is relatively even. In their last five meetings across all competitions, including Serie A and Serie B, AC Monza has recorded 2 wins, Frosinone has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. Their most recent clash was a 3-2 win for Frosinone in Serie A in April 2024.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 53% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 21% |
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