The Kalshi contract asks whether a crypto market structure bill will become law before a set deadline. Its rules say the market resolves to Yes if such a bill has become law before the deadline [1]. The contract defines qualifying legislation as a bill that establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies, but not solely for stablecoins, and that delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies, such as the SEC, CFTC, or others, for oversight of digital assets [1]. The definition is therefore based on what the bill does, not on a single named bill. The Polymarket contract is narrower. It names the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) and resolves Yes only if the bill is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [2]. Its primary resolution source is Congress.gov's legislation tracker, and other credible reporting may be used [2]. Because the two contracts use different wording, a bill could satisfy one definition without matching the exact bill and date terms of the other. In the saved snapshot, observed at 2026-10-13 18:00 UTC, the Kalshi event contained seven markets with different deadlines. Yes prices ranged from 0.005 for a deadline of November 1, 2026 to 0.285 for a deadline of January 1, 2028 [1]. Prices rose as the deadlines moved later, from 0.03 for December 1, 2026 to 0.058 for January 1, 2027, 0.065 for April 1, 2027, 0.12 for July 1, 2027, and 0.14 for October 1, 2027 [1]. The saved Polymarket market showed a Yes price of 0.0605 with an end date of January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC [2]. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A higher or lower price on one contract does not show that the two contracts are mispriced, since their rules differ. The Wikipedia entry titled Clarity Act does not concern this subject. It describes Canadian legislation, Bill C-20, that set conditions for negotiations that might follow a provincial secession vote [3]. That entry should not be used for the U.S. market.

Historical Context

The supplied evidence includes one earlier U.S. effort on this subject. The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) was passed by the lower house of Congress in May 2024 to explicitly address the treatment of digital assets under U.S. law, but it never passed the Senate and did not become law [4]. The Canadian Clarity Act is a separate matter. Bill C-20 was tabled for first reading in the House of Commons on 13 December 1999, passed the House on 15 March 2000, and passed the Senate in its final version on 29 June 2000 [3]. The evidence does not describe the legislative steps of H.R.3633 or any other bill after the snapshot date.

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