$94.47K
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4
$94.47K
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4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to how much "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (January 16 - January 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then
Prediction markets currently price a 43% probability that "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" will gross less than $16 million in its domestic opening weekend. This suggests the market views a sub-$16 million debut as slightly less likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. The opposing "Yes" share for the $16M+ bracket trades at 57%, indicating a marginal lean toward a stronger opening. With only $76,000 in total volume spread thinly across four related markets, this consensus is tentative and sensitive to new information.
The cautious pricing reflects two primary industry dynamics. First, the "28 Years Later" franchise, while cult-classic horror, has been dormant for nearly two decades, creating uncertainty about modern audience appeal. The original "28 Days Later" opened to just $10 million in 2003, and its sequel "28 Weeks Later" debuted to $10.1 million in 2007. Adjusted for inflation, those figures roughly equate to $17-19 million today, placing the $16 million market bracket directly in line with historical, inflation-adjusted performance.
Second, the January release date is traditionally a soft period for box office, often used for mid-tier genre films. Without significant pre-release marketing buzz or early critical reviews, traders are defaulting to a baseline anchored to the franchise's historical performance, adjusted for the challenging release corridor.
Final tracking numbers from industry sources like The-Numbers.com or Deadline, expected 1-2 days before the January 16 opening, will be the immediate catalyst. Positive early audience reactions from Thursday night previews could swiftly shift odds toward the $16M+ bracket. Conversely, if reviews (typically embargoed until release week) are poor, the probability of a sub-$16 million opening will likely rise. The thin market liquidity means any substantive news could create significant price volatility before the January 19 resolution.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The prediction market topic '28 Years Later: Bone Temple Opening Weekend Box Office' focuses on forecasting the domestic theatrical revenue generated during the film's initial three-day release period from January 16 to January 18. This market resolves based on verified final figures from The Numbers website, specifically the 'Daily Box Office Performance' data, not preliminary studio estimates. The outcome serves as a key performance indicator for the film's commercial viability and audience reception in the crucial North American market. Opening weekend performance is a critical metric in Hollywood, influencing marketing spend, theater booking negotiations, and potential franchise development decisions. The specific focus on a precise dollar bracket resolution makes this a quantifiable event of interest to industry analysts, film financiers, and entertainment market speculators. Interest in this market stems from the film's position as a long-awaited sequel in the acclaimed '28 Days Later' horror franchise, combined with the inherent volatility and high stakes of theatrical releases in the modern streaming era. The performance will be scrutinized as a test of both franchise longevity and the drawing power of original creative voices returning to their seminal work after decades.
The '28 Years Later' project exists within the historical context of the groundbreaking '28 Days Later' (2002), directed by Danny Boyle and written by Alex Garland. That film, made for approximately $8 million, became a critical and commercial surprise, grossing over $85 million worldwide and revitalizing the zombie genre with its digital video aesthetic and fast-moving infected. Its sequel, '28 Weeks Later' (2007), was directed by Juan Carlos Fresnadillo without Boyle and Garland in key creative roles. It opened to $9.8 million domestically and finished with a worldwide total of $65.8 million, a solid performance but without the cultural impact of the original. The nearly two-decade gap between sequels is unusually long for a horror franchise, creating both pent-up demand and uncertainty about contemporary relevance. Historically, long-dormant horror franchises like 'Halloween' (2018) and 'Scream' (2022) have successfully revived by bringing back original creators, a model '28 Years Later' is following. The original film's release preceded the modern dominance of shared cinematic universes, making this a test of a simpler, director-driven sequel model.
The opening weekend gross for '28 Years Later: Bone Temple' matters significantly as a bellwether for the health of original, director-driven genre filmmaking within the major studio system. A strong performance would demonstrate that franchises built on distinctive creative vision, rather than interconnected cinematic universes, can still command audience attention and generate substantial revenue after long hiatuses. This could encourage studios to greenlight similar revivals of dormant, auteur-led properties. Economically, the result directly impacts the profitability calculus for Searchlight Pictures and its parent company Disney, influencing future investment in mid-budget horror and thriller productions. For the broader film industry, it serves as a data point in the ongoing analysis of theatrical versus streaming viability for genre content. A weak opening could be interpreted as a sign that audience tastes have moved on or that the market is oversaturated with legacy sequels, potentially cooling studio enthusiasm for similar projects. The performance also holds symbolic value for the careers of Danny Boyle and Alex Garland, testing whether their artistic prestige translates directly into commercial success decades after their initial collaboration.
As of late 2024, '28 Years Later: Bone Temple' is in post-production with a confirmed release date of January 16, 2025. Official marketing materials, including a trailer and poster, are anticipated in the coming months, which will provide the first concrete indicators of audience interest and campaign tone. The film's placement in mid-January is historically a softer period for box office, often used for genre releases that can perform well with targeted audiences without summer blockbuster competition. No confirmed casting announcements beyond the original creative team have been made, fueling speculation. Industry tracking services will begin publishing preliminary opening weekend projections approximately six to eight weeks before release, which will form the basis for early predictions in markets like this one.
28 Weeks Later opened domestically on May 11, 2007, earning $9,816,246 in its first three-day weekend. It played in 2,303 theaters, resulting in a per-theater average of $4,262.
Cillian Murphy is officially attached as a producer for 28 Years Later. His on-screen involvement has not been officially confirmed by the studio or producers, though he has expressed openness to the idea in interviews, leading to widespread speculation.
Danny Boyle, the director of the original 2002 film 28 Days Later, is returning to direct 28 Years Later. This marks his first time directing a film in the franchise since the original.
28 Years Later: Bone Temple is scheduled for theatrical release in the United States on January 16, 2025. Its opening weekend, the subject of this prediction market, will be the three-day period from Friday, January 16 to Sunday, January 18, 2025.
Opening weekend box office is the sum of all domestic (U.S. and Canada) ticket sales revenue from the first Friday through Sunday of a film's wide release. Final figures, as used to resolve this market, are reported by theaters to distributors and compiled by services like The Numbers, typically released on the Monday after the weekend.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 7% |
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