Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

Total Volume

$500.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

Vol

$500.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $500.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $500.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$500.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Dec 1, 2026 If a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 9, 2026 at 4:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 5

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Dec 1, 2026

If a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 9, 2026 at 4:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 5

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $500
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather