Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

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Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

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4 markets tracked

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?	Kalshi	18%
Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?	Kalshi	13%
Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?	Kalshi	7%
Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

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18%

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About This Event

MSC vs EDM (Oct 11) If Monagas wins by more than X goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** MSC vs EDM (Oct 11)

If Monagas wins by more than X goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not aff"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

Volume$0.00

Markets4

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KALSHI

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHISports

CLOSING SOON

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

If Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not aff

KALSHI

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHISports

CLOSING SOON

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

If Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not

KALSHI

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHISports

CLOSING SOON

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

If Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not aff

KALSHI

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHISports

CLOSING SOON

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

If Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Monagas vs Est. Merida professional Venezuela Liga FUTVE soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not

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Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

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Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

Markets (4)

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

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Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Monagas vs Est. Merida: Spread

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Monagas wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Est. Merida wins by more than 2.5 goals?

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