Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | PredictPedia

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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Name: Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$27.25K

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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $27.25K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $27.25K

100%

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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	Poly	42%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$27.25K

Volume

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part. The resolution source for

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $27.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

165d 13h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

42¢

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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)